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Tomorrow, President Gustavo Petro will reach the end of two years in office, the midpoint of a four-year term. At this stage of the mandate, it is customary to take stock of the government’s achievements and unfulfilled promises, and outline how the remaining two years of administration will proceed. This is especially true when it comes to the first democratically elected left-wing government.
If it is about the “transformation” of the different social, economic and political spheres of the country, which is what the president promised and what his followers expected, then Gustavo Petro’s cut account is flawed. Transformation through different means (legislative reform, policies implemented by the executive or “reversals” of strategic sectors) is conspicuous by its absence. The tax reform in the first year and the reform of the pension system in the second year stand out in a series of scarce transformation initiatives.
If we talk about “changes” in political methods and the fight against corruption, it turns out that the situation with the Petro government is more like this. The Nariño Chamber of Deputies openly announced that it would negotiate “in detail” the support of congressmen to approve its legislative agenda. In addition, the corruption scandal at the Disaster Risk Management Unit (UNGRD) affected not only the inner circle of the President of the Republic himself, but also the theft of water resources in La Guajira.
If the focus is on the “change” in the country’s socio-economic structure and its relationship to climate change, energy production and consumption, then balance is scarce amid the apocalyptic rhetoric, signals and warnings. The oil and gas industry has shrunk due to the government’s decision to restrict new hydrocarbon exploration, and progress in renewable energy development has been slowed by delays in permits and licenses, community consultations and regulatory uncertainty. There is no clear, tangible roadmap for the energy transition.
The Petro government can “receive” positive results if it “changes” the social and economic situation of millions of Colombians affected by poverty, inflation and unemployment. Price increases are receding, albeit more slowly than expected, with the help of the Bank of the Republic’s policies and other factors. Although the monetary poverty indicator for 2023 shows a decrease of 3.6 percentage points – a trend that must be strengthened – the economic slowdown leads to a worsening employment situation.
If we are talking about a “change” in the way government institutions are managed and governed and in relation to actors such as the business community, this change cannot be considered fortunate. If there is anything that has characterized the past two years of Petro’s government, it is the conflict and hostile relations between the government and the business community. The executive branch’s refusal to allow the private sector to participate in the production and service sectors has led to a loss of confidence, increased legal insecurity and uncertainty, and a collapse in investment.
In conclusion, the oil company government has only accomplished half of the task and failed to deliver on its promise of change due to undeniable shortcomings in execution and implementation of its own initiatives. The second part of the task should be less focused on politics and ideology and more committed to delivering tangible results that will improve its bottom line.
Francisco Miranda Hamburg
framir@portafolio.co
X: @pachomiranda
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