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Last Friday, Dane published the Vital Statistics report, which reports on the occurrence and characteristics of births and deaths. In the first four months of 2024, Colombia recorded 145,416 live births, the lowest figure in the past decade. This represents a decrease of 14.6% compared to the same period in 2023.
It should come as no greater surprise that Colombians are having fewer babies. Last year, the statistics organization reported just over 510,000 births, a drop of 11% compared to 2022. Ten years ago, in 2014, when this indicator ended, the country had 669,137 live births. If the trend of the first third of this year continues, 2024 will continue this downward trend.
Colombia is no stranger to this demographic trend that has global characteristics. A recent OECD report on the subject found that in its member countries, fertility rates have fallen over the past 60 years, from 3.3 children per woman in 1960 to 1.5 children per woman in 2022. In the case of Colombia, the decline is significant. Even more pronounced: from 6.7 children per woman in 1960 to 1.7 children per woman in 2022. Although the national level is not so low compared to other developed countries, and with average incomes like Colombia, the medium- and long-term effects are more pronounced. Serious.
Talking about a statistical “shortage” of babies in a society like Colombia may sound contradictory. Over the decades, Colombia has made great efforts to ensure that Colombians have knowledge of and access to scientific methods of contraception, to delay the age of first pregnancy among adolescents, and to bring birth rates in rural areas closer to those in urban areas. Statistically, these policies cannot be abandoned all the time because they remain necessary.
However, fertility, mortality and, to some extent, migration do together shape the future of society. More and more Colombians are postponing or even completely forgoing motherhood, reflecting their higher education levels, incomes and developments in the work sector, as well as the growing appeal of plans to live without children. Environmental factors such as the uncertainty and anxiety typical of the post-Covid-19 pandemic, high education costs and housing prices also influence and in some way shape the decisions and choices of young people in Colombia today.
The gradual “aging” of countries presents both opportunities and challenges. Fewer infants and children opens a window for significantly improving the coverage of education, health and well-being for children and adolescents. On the other hand, a smaller number of young people – without the persistent and dynamic impact of migration – leads to weaker economic and production dynamics and poses challenges for the financing of pension systems. This is especially true in Colombia, which has just approved a reform that puts all the chips of a pay-as-you-go system based on contributions from young workers at the hands of the state.
One of the most complex aspects of these demographic trends is that their time horizon hinders the ability to implement public policies to address them. The fact is, it is worthwhile to have a full picture now to keep an eye on these dynamics and prevent them from getting out of control.
Francisco Miranda Hamburg
framir@portafolio.co
X: @pachomiranda
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