Eastern Germany faces populist outbreak in elections – Euractiv

Eastern Germany could face a dramatic shift in upcoming state elections, with the far-right Alternative for Germany and the left-wing populist Social Democrats expected to secure unprecedented victories, raising fears of future chaos across much of the country.

Voters in three of Germany’s five former communist East German states will go to the polls to elect new local governments – on September 1 in Thuringia and Saxony and on September 22 in Brandenburg.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD/ESN) party is expected to win Germany’s first major election, with the party leading in opinion polls in two of three states.

The far-left parties are also expected to make big gains, with the Federal Democratic Party (BSW), which split from the Left Party, receiving between 11% and 19% of the vote in its first election.

On the other hand, traditional centrist parties are likely to be significantly marginalized, with some forecasts suggesting they will collectively receive less than half of the vote.

“There have always been differences between the eastern German states due to historical and cultural backgrounds,” Konstantin Wortmann, a political scientist at the University of Erlangen, told Euractiv.

Observers often point to East German voters’ upbringing under authoritarian rule, as well as the economic problems in the eastern part of Germany after reunification, to explain voting behavior that leans toward authoritarianism and anti-establishment.

Perhaps that’s why, as Waterman notes, “many people there feel like second-class citizens, constantly degraded,” and that discontent translates into anti-establishment votes.

In contrast, the AfD came in fourth in the former west Germany in June’s European Parliament elections, with 13% of the vote, while the SPD got just 5%.

49% support populists

The rise of populist parties in the east is therefore nothing new, as centrist parties have also had to fight to retain power in previous regional elections, usually through three-party coalitions.

But with the BSW’s participation in the elections, the squeeze on the centre has taken on a new dimension, sometimes making it impossible to form a government without the participation of fringe political parties.

The most extreme example is Thuringia, where the four traditional centrist parties – the Christian Democratic Union (European People’s Party), the Social Democratic Party (Socialist and Democratic Union), the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (Reform Party) – are expected to win only a third of the vote.

Almost half of the votes and seats are likely to go to the AfD (30%) and the SPD (19%), nearly 25% higher than in the last election. The national governing coalition of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP is polling at just over 10%.

The anti-establishment slant of the results alarmed centrists

The AfD chapter in Thuringia is particularly extreme, with its lead candidate Björn Höcke having Convicted Use Nazi slogans.

Meanwhile, Christian Democratic Union leader Friedrich Merz described the Social Democratic Party of Germany as “extreme right on some issues and extreme left on others” because of the party’s mixture of economic left-wing and socially conservative views.

In addition, “the poll shows that 49% support the two clearly pro-Russian parties (#AfD + #BSW)”, Kai Arzheimer of the University of Mainz tip The remarks on X refer to the BSW and AfD’s opposition to sanctions against Russia and the supply of weapons to Ukraine.

In Brandenburg and Saxony, the AfD and the Socialist Party of Germany are expected to win with a combined 41 percent of the vote. The AfD is also ahead in Brandenburg.

Who will rule the East?

Most importantly, such an outcome would pose a challenge to governance in parts of the east, as state governments form an important part of regional administration with wide-ranging powers.

The danger does not come entirely from the possibility that the AfD could come to power, as the party is still bound by a German barrier called “Brandmauer”. obey and.

But an ideologically incompatible coalition is inevitable and could even bring the Social Democrats to power. Waterman believes that the future governance of Germany’s eastern states depends on the parties’ willingness to cooperate across party lines.

In Brandenburg and Thuringia, for example, the SPD and Germany’s largest national opposition party, the center-right Christian Democratic Union, will likely need to cooperate to form a government.

But the two camps clashed over defense and support for Ukraine. The CDU supports military buildup, while BSW leader Sahra Wagenknecht asked future coalition partners to oppose the government’s controversial military buildup plans. station U.S. long-range missiles in Germany.

It is worth noting that the CDU has not ruled out the possibility of cooperation with the BSW at the regional level.

Hope Never Dies

However, some party officials hope to unite centrist candidates at the last minute, which would benefit the CDU as the leading centrist party in Saxony and Thuringia.

“Many people told me that they had voted for other parties before, but this time they voted for the CDU,” Michael Kretschmer, the CDU chancellor of Saxony, said recently. Tell RNA.

“They want things to continue to develop reasonably and for Saxony to have a stable government.”

(Editing by Oliver Noyan/Daniel Eck)

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