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(ABC – Australia) A new leader has quickly risen to power in Vietnam and some are already comparing him to Xi Jinping.
Former Public Security Minister Surin, 67, has taken on two of the four posts considered the “pillars” of the communist country’s political system following a period of intense upheaval at the top of government.
Carrie Lam was sworn in as president in May this year. His predecessor resigned amid unspecified corruption allegations.
Earlier this month, he took over as general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam following the death of Nguyen Phu Trong, who had served as general secretary since 2011.
Nguyen Hac Giang, a Vietnam expert at the Yusof Ishak Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, a Singaporean think tank, said Lam’s rise was “remarkable”.
“A few months ago, he was just a cabinet minister,” Dr Jiang said.
“Now (his position) I think is similar to the power of Xi Jinping in China because he is both president and general secretary at the same time.”
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Huong Le Thu, deputy director of Crisis Group’s Asia program, said that before the current Politburo term, Mr Lam – who has spent his entire career in the police service – did not have much public visibility.
In 2021, he made international headlines for a video in which he Nusret “Salt Bae” Gokce hand-feeds a gold-leaf steak at his London restaurant.
An activist and noodle salesman who parodied the scandal in a video has been jailedthe Secretary-General even alluded to this in one of his speeches.
Political collapse ‘chain reaction’
Dr Jiang said Mr Lam’s rise came as other senior government officials were “fallen one after another” over corruption charges.
As public security minister, Lam has been leading the massive “Crucible of Fire” anti-corruption campaign launched by Nguyen Phu Trong.
Some speculate that this enables him to engineer the political downfall of his rivals — just as Xi Jinping used his anti-corruption campaign to purge his political opponents.
Dr Jiang said there was no direct evidence that Lam was pulling the strings, but he suspected that once Lam saw a path to the leadership she might take direct action to remove the last few obstacles.
“I think it was a bit of a combination of coincidence and his determination to become the top leader,” he said.
Different political systems
Although Lam and Xi now have similar positions, analysts interviewed by the ABC said there were key differences between them.
Dr. Lai Tu said Lam has yet to demonstrate the ideological drive and personal experience that propelled Xi Jinping to the position of China’s undisputed top leader.
She also pointed out that Xi Jinping’s “personality cult” runs counter to Vietnam’s political system.
Vietnam is a one-party state, but it places greater emphasis on collective decision-making and imposes multiple checks on executive power to prevent any individual from becoming a dictator.
“Even though To Lin has more power than his predecessor, I think it’s still very difficult to break away from collective leadership in Vietnam,” she said.
Dr Le Thu said Lam may continue to try to consolidate power, but how successful he would be was “another matter”.
“We need to wait and see,” she said. “It’s too early to tell.”
Carl Thayer, emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales Canberra, said Lam was accountable to the 200-member Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam, while Xi was not.
“Xi Jinping is indeed a strong man,” he said.
“Vietnam’s political culture … they would be shocked by Xi Jinping’s power.
“(This is) the last thing they want in Vietnam.”
Nguyen Phu Trong was the only Vietnamese leader to hold both posts before Lam, and he resigned as president after three years in office.
Dr Thayer said the National Assembly was likely to vote for someone else as president when it meets in October, and Lam was not guaranteed re-election as general secretary at the next party congress in 2026.
“He’s eligible, but it’s not a sure thing,” he said.
Dr Giang said Vietnam’s political culture meant Mr Lam did not want to be seen as consolidating too much power.
He said he might voluntarily give up the largely ceremonial presidency in October and his successor would likely be a military man.
“So there is essentially nothing to lose by giving up the presidency and a lot to gain from the military, further consolidating its de facto power,” he said.
“So nominally, I think Vietnam will remain a collectivist system, but in reality, To Lin is increasingly becoming a strongman-type leader.
“I think it will continue to be that way for at least the next decade while he maintains a firm grip on the party system.”
Policy direction has been “determined”
Meanwhile, Dr Thayer said the government’s policy direction was effectively “set”.
Lam pledged to continue her anti-corruption campaign, pursue the government’s long-term economic development goals and consolidate the existing “bamboo diplomacy” policy of building strong ties with as many major powers as possible, including the United States and China.
“In a sense, he was parachuted into the driver’s seat, but he had no choice but to keep his foot on the gas and keep going,” Dr. Thayer said.
Mrs Lam’s first international trip this week was to China, where she met with Mr Xi, which Dr Thayer said was not surprising given that China is the largest communist country in the region.
Dr Jiang said he expected Lam to focus on the economy and creating political stability in the medium term, even if that meant relaxing anti-corruption efforts with an eye on the 2026 party congress.
The Communist Party of Vietnam’s goal is to make Vietnam a “high-income country” by 2045.
“He wants people to see him as a leader who can actually govern the country and bring more prosperity and economic growth to the country, rather than simply pushing an anti-corruption campaign at all costs,” he said.
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