Details about the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh are scarce.

What happens next is even less clear.

go through Rebecca Armitage and Middle East Correspondent Eric Trozek

(ABC – Australia) Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh might have had every reason to believe he was safe until an “aerial projectile” struck the Tehran house where he was sleeping.

Palestinian militant political leader Ismail Haniyeh reportedly arrived in the heart of Iran surrounded by bodyguards to attend the inauguration ceremony of the country’s new president.

The exact details of what happened are unclear.

But Hamas claimed that Haniyeh and one of his guards were “killed in a treacherous Zionist attack” at a special residence for veterans north of the Iranian capital.

In a televised address from Tel Aviv on Wednesday evening local time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel had dealt a devastating blow this week to Iranian proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah.

However, he did not specifically highlight Haniyeh’s killing, for which Israel has not yet claimed responsibility.

But on a day when the situation in the Middle East was highly tense, an important figure of Hamas was brutally murdered.

Haniyeh was killed just hours after the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it had “eliminated” a senior Hezbollah commander in an airstrike on the Lebanese capital, Beirut.

IDF says Fuad Shukr is behind the attack Rockets hit soccer stadium in Israeli-occupied Golan Heights — Hezbollah denies the allegation.

Hezbollah confirmed Shukur’s death on Wednesday.

Now, Iran’s supreme leader has vowed to retaliate, and armed groups in Iran’s “axis of resistance,” such as Shiite militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen, are preparing for even larger attacks.

The assassination of two leading Iranian-backed militants in a night that threatens to ignite a powder keg in the Middle East.

Why this could be a serious upgrade

Last October, Hamas-led militants crossed the border into southern Israel, killing hundreds of civilians and taking more than 250 hostages back to Gaza.

Israeli officials subsequently vowed to hunt down senior Hamas members and assassinate them.

“Let every Arab mother know that if her son took part in the (October 7) massacre, he signed his own death warrant,” the head of the Mossad spy agency said. David Bania says.

Senior Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri Killed in Lebanon airstrike In January.

Israel did not claim responsibility for the assassination, with a government spokesman saying only that “whoever did it was unhappy with Hamas.”

Then in April, Israeli fighter jets Missiles are believed to have been fired at the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital Damascuskilling senior military commanders.

Now, these two assassinations, in Beirut and Tehran, have killed two of the most senior figures among Israel’s direct enemies.

Fuad Shukr is known as the right-hand man of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

The well-armed, Iran-backed group is likely to view the assassination of a prominent member on its soil as a provocation that requires a strong response.

The attack on Haniya was a disgrace to the Iranian authorities, who failed to protect the high-profile visitor, who was staying in military housing in the capital.

Abbas Aslani, a researcher at Tehran’s Middle East Center for Strategic Studies, told Al Jazeera: “What happened in Tehran is a bad thing for the Iranian security establishment… That’s why Iran feels it has to respond to it.”

“This is not good news for Tehran’s security apparatus.”

Haniyeh’s death could also make it more difficult for Israel to reach a ceasefire agreement with Hamas.

Haniyeh is a key figure in Hamas’s negotiating team and is reportedly a strong voice in the Hamas leadership for a ceasefire.

He has been described several times as “pragmatic” and has good relations with key players in the region, especially Qatar, where he lives.

The Gulf state, a US ally, has been trying for months to broker a deal to end the Gaza war.

Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani asked in a social media post: “How can mediation succeed if one side assassinates the other side’s negotiator?”

Hamas deputy in Gaza, Khalil Haya, told a news conference in Tehran on Wednesday that the assassination of Haniyeh was a punishable crime but that Hamas and Iran did not want to spark a regional war.

Although the International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor has requested an arrest warrant for Haniyeh, charging him with crimes against humanity over the October 7 attack, the Hamas leader is well-received by other Palestinian political factions and armed groups.

Gaza political analyst Mohammed Shehada believes the motive for his killing may be to ensure Hamas does not belong to any Palestinian unity movement.

“Haniyeh supported solidarity with the Palestinian Authority at last week’s Beijing summit and a moderate and pragmatic stance in ceasefire talks,” he wrote on social media platform X.

“He would have been the one best placed to convince (Gaza leader Yahya) Sinwar to reach a deal and influence his inner circle.”

Haniyeh accused Israel of delaying ceasefire talks and said it did not want to end the war.

The Israeli government may plan to use his death as an example of what it has achieved, while its goals in Gaza, such as freeing the hostages and destroying Hamas, remain elusive.

But it is also possible that Israel had killed Ismail Haniyeh on a previous visit to Iran or elsewhere in the region, and that the assassination was timed for other reasons.

Currently, major countries such as the United States are busy controlling the impact.

Ultimately, experts say Haniyeh’s death will do little to weaken Hamas or restore stability.

“Hamas is a concept and an institution, not an individual,” senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters. “Hamas will continue on this path, whatever the sacrifices, and we are confident of victory.”

In a televised address, Netanyahu said Israel “will face challenges in the future.”

“We are ready for any situation and we will stand united and resist any threat,” he said.

“Israel will pay a heavy price for any aggression against us.”

While Hamas will continue to exist without Haniyeh, the prospects for a ceasefire in the short term appear increasingly remote, and the likelihood of a regional war is likely to increase.

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