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Three independent forecast models for Tropical Cyclone Hola all predict the storm is likely to hit New Zealand’s North Island early next week.
Forecast chart published to The Herald Tonight shows the storm moving towards the country.
The first two models from the Met Office show Hola could hit the Bay of Plenty region on Monday, which would make it the third cyclone to hit New Zealand this season.
A third model, from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, predicts it could make landfall around 6pm on Monday.
Climate scientist Dr Jim Salinger said models were beginning to show a consistent pattern.
Typhoon Hola made landfall on the northern islands of Vanuatu last night, bringing strong winds and causing some houses to collapse.
The cyclone hit Vanuatu’s Ambrym Island this afternoon, ripping the roof off a classroom and causing some houses to collapse, Radio New Zealand reported.
The cyclone is a Category 2 hurricane, bringing winds of up to 95 km/h.
“The sea will remain rough, with waves as huge as those of astonishing magnitude.
Malampa, Sanma, Penama and Shefa provinces.
“Heavy rainfall, thunderstorms and flash flooding including coastal flooding in low lying areas and areas near river banks will continue to affect these provinces,” the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geohazards Department said.
People in these areas are advised to listen to Radio Vanuatu and all other radio stations for the latest updates.
The cyclone is expected to develop into a Category 3 tropical cyclone on Thursday morning.
The cyclone is forecast to move southeast towards New Zealand waters early Friday.
MetService said it was too early to determine the cyclone’s path as it passed through New Zealand waters, but some models showed it could pass over the upper North Island late Sunday into Monday.
“We’ll have a more accurate forecast by Thursday or Friday,” MetService meteorologist Sarah Haddon said.
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