consumption. Should we expect a chocolate shortage?

Will there be chocolate on your breakfast table this weekend? It’s a question that has been weighing on bakers and pastry chefs as cocoa prices have seen historic increases this year.

The price at the beginning of the year multiplied by three

The reason? Last year’s harvests were poor in major producers of the precious bean, such as Ivory Coast and Ghana. It was a gloomy year, which can be explained by severe bad weather. The result? Cocoa prices reached an all-time high of $12,000 a ton in April, a surge of 180% since January, thanks to stock market speculation.

“Usually the order is 10 boxes, we only delivered 5 boxes”

So, should we be worried? Franck Thomasse, president of the Ile-de-France regional federation of bakery and pastry, recognises the direct consequences of rising prices and last year’s poor harvest. Especially at the level of suppliers of the “bars of the month” used to make pain au chocolat: “Usually the order is for 10 boxes and we only delivered 5,” explains the president.

If Franck Thomasse wants “suppliers not to speculate on prices”, he wants to reassure the future. “There is nothing to worry about,” he said. Will chocolate not become a luxury? “It will always remain affordable and even if the price goes up by 5 cents, it will not go up significantly,” the representative assured.

There will be better harvest in the future

And for good reason: in May last year, brown gold prices plummeted to their current levels of around $8,000 per ton. A 30% drop in production in two days can be attributed to improved weather conditions in West African producing countries and the subsequent announcement of significantly better future harvests. The market should therefore respond adequately to demand, without ruling out a roller coaster effect on specific prices in the raw material market.

Reassure consumers! So whether we support chocolate or not, a chocolate shortage is not imminent.