Climate geopolitical scientist François Gemenet analyses rising water levels in the Pacific Ocean

On Tuesday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres launched a Pacific Islands Forum summit issues ‘global call for help’ over rising Pacific sea levelsby publishing research showing growth faster than the world average.

This Tuesday, Franceinfo spoke to François Gemenne, a climate geopolitician, IPCC member and professor at HEC Paris, who published his analysis.

So are Pacific islands in danger of disappearing?

Some of their territories are threatened with disappearance because they face a dual problem. First, the sea level in the region is rising faster than the world average; second, many of these territories are coral atolls and therefore very low in elevation, with the highest points in some areas being only two or three meters above sea level. Therefore, any rise in sea levels threatens the habitats of these countries as well as their economies and agriculture.

The Pacific Ocean is rising more than the global average because the water there is warming more than elsewhere and because of currents. We tend to think of sea level rise as being consistent around the world, but there are big differences depending on where in the world it is happening.

Can the current situation be reversed?

At the moment, the situation is relatively irreversible. Even if we stop warming, there is a phenomenon of inertia that means that sea level rise will undoubtedly continue into the 22nd century. This means that these territories really need to adapt, and there is obviously a terrible question: at what point will they still be inhabitable? Will there come a day when it will no longer be possible to live on some of these islands? Do we then have to resolve to repopulate them?

Have these regions adapted to global warming?

A lot of work has been done on agricultural adaptation, for example, as well as defence against sea level rise. The difficulty is that the islands we are on are very small, sometimes at sea level, with very few inhabitants, so we wonder if it is worth investing in adaptation means to protect these territories, and if it would not be simpler to relocate part of the population.

This is something that some states in the region have already started to do.Australia negotiated an agreement with Tuvalu last year The project aims to issue climate visas to Tuvalu residents who feel threatened by rising sea levels and want to move permanently to Australia. It is an agreement with a geopolitical perspective. Australia is concerned that Tuvalu and other Pacific islands will seek protection from China.

After the agreement was signed, the islands were very concerned about their sovereignty, fearing that welcoming climate refugees would undermine national sovereignty?

This raises a very serious question of sovereignty. Even if the island territories in question become uninhabitable, can they retain their statehood under international law? What does state sovereignty even mean when your territory is slowly disappearing due to the actions of other states over which you have little control? This is a real question, and it also brings us back to the connection between state and territory.

Other island nations in the region may want to negotiate the same type of agreement with Australia, New Zealand, and even France, which also have territories in the region, especially because Certain overseas territories French, In New Caledonia or in Polynesiain exactly the same situation and face the same risks.