Chiapas, Mexican refugees, and organized crime

Throughout 2024, violence and criminality have been worsening along the border between Mexico and Guatemala. They are not new or unknown events, as can be seen from any news media commentary. The forced displacement of the inhabitants of Chiapas and the current refugee status of a group of people in Guatemala is one of the cruelest costs that criminal organizations have inflicted on the region. The Mexican refugees now in Guatemala are a tragic paradox and a symbol of the disintegration of the rule of law and minimal institutions in the region.

This deterioration has been going on for years. The federal and local governments have also ignored this serious problem for years, despite the presence of a large number of armed forces and the National Guard in Chiapas. Everything indicates that this is none of their business, since they have a formal obligation to intervene in crime control and protect the population. The tone reached by the crisis of insecurity is one of terror, as constantly denounced by civil organizations in the entity and courageously reported by colleagues doing social research on the southern border.

Are the signs and initiatives of the State moving in the right direction? These remain an unresolved agenda that accumulates day by day a debt that may not be repaid. What level of social deterioration must be reached to prompt decisive and effective initiatives to restore the rule of law? Are the murders and repeated forced displacements of Chiapas communities, mainly indigenous, not enough?

With regard to the Mexican refugees currently in Guatemala, the federal government’s response does not directly address the core issue: controlling criminal gangs, eliminating them and reclaiming territory for their communities. Action must be taken immediately for the affected populations; and for the country as a whole, since in many cities criminal organizations have become de facto power players in everyday life. It is no longer just about the trafficking of weapons, drugs or migrants; now, they are also about the domination of commerce, production and many other social activities.

Unfortunately, the insecurity crisis in Chiapas is not unique in the country. Chiapas refugees in Guatemala are not the only Mexican refugees seeking international protection. In fact, we are facing a severe and unprecedented national crisis. Forced displacement, whatever its specific factors, is a powerful barometer of ongoing social crises: it is a measure of the breakdown of normal coexistence, forcing people to flee.

Forced displacement is now a widespread practice in Mexico, one that violates the most fundamental rights. We see this clearly in Chiapas, but other regions are also affected. Part of these movements usually takes place within the country, from one region to another, from town to city. Another part is reflected along borders, which now include the southern border with Guatemala; but the fact is that the largest proportion is concentrated in the north.

Starting in May 2022, there has been an impressive increase in the number of Mexicans arriving at the US border in family groups. The numbers started with about 4,500 that month and peaked at more than 37,000 in December 2023. During 2024, an average of 24,000 incidents occurred per month (until June). In contrast, in all years before 2022, the number of Mexicans registered as “encounters” by USCIS (in family groups) did not exceed 4,000 per month on average. To give you an idea of ​​the magnitude of the problem: the total number of incidents of “encounters” of Mexicans in families between January 2022 and June 2024 was close to 440,000. Both are among the worst, if not compared with what happens at the Guatemalan border.

Mobility in family groups – very different from the mobility of single adults that has characterized the entire history of Mexican population mobility – means that people abandon their homes and life projects, because it is no longer possible to coexist in their accustomed spaces. The new mobility of Mexican men and women, our refugees, is a vivid portrayal of a deeply damaged social situation, often caused by the dominance of criminal organizations, as is now exemplified in the state of Chiapas.

The number of forced displacements and refugees in Mexico (including those from Guatemala) is a microcosm of a serious crisis that remains unrecognized and unnoticed. Thus, throughout the country, violence and crime exacerbate forced displacement as part of its severe costs, while the prevalence of extortion and other criminal practices restricts or eliminates economic and business activities. From this perspective, it can be seen that people’s rights and economic development seem to be increasingly undermined by criminal organizations, which are not subject to any significant restrictions.

The dilemma is not between “embracing” or “shooting”, as the terminology surrounding the government discourse suggests, as if this were a unique and insurmountable dichotomy. This route concerns another area, namely the strengthening of judicial institutions, from the prosecutor’s office to the judiciary, federal and state, in addition to the institutions of prevention and security. These institutions must, in fact, be updated, but along the lines of technical and operational modernization, professionalization and complete autonomy. If it is not this path, if the choice is made for the electoral and political process that the Morena Party desires today, there will be no solution or justice for Chiapas, for the other states, for our refugees and for the victims.

Forced displacement, refugees, and the region’s social and economic deterioration — including homicide on an alarming scale — all have one core determinant: criminal organizations and the tolerance that surrounds them. What more is needed to recognize it? What more needs to be done in order to take legal action responsibly? There is no higher public priority; no greater social urgency.

Violence and crime combine like a powerful whirlwind, sinking our country’s old problems further and making their solution more distant. Solving the latter now requires solving the first. Starting next October, the next Mexican president will face his greatest challenge here, if she recognizes the importance of this challenge and National call Implement a real alternative. Hopefully for the good of the nation. We will soon find out.

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Professor at PUED/UNAM

Former INM Commissioner