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The Pakatan Harapan strategy may pave the way for Sabah and Sarawak to once again become kingmakers.
Murray Hunter, FMT
The chances are rising that Anwar Ibrahim will end up serving just one term as prime minister.
After all, he did not receive the mandate of prime minister on the strength of Pakatan Harapan (PH) alone in the 15th general election (GE15).
In fact, no single party or coalition won enough seats in the lower house to come close to a simple majority.
In the 2022 general election, Pakatan Harapan won 82 seats, while Perikatan Nasional (PN) won 74 seats.
Initially, the Barisan Nasional (BN), which won 30 seats, was ready to fully support the Perikatan Nasional along with the Gabungan Nasional Sarawak (GPS).
But in the end, Barisan Nasional and the Sarawak Party Alliance (GPS) emerged as the kingmaker with their combined strength in the Dewan Rakyat, and they elected Anwar as Malaysia’s 10th Prime Minister.
There is a good chance that the next general election (GE16) will produce a similar outcome, but the number of seats won by peninsular parties will be different from GE15.
We can foresee that support for UMNO, the core force of the Barisan Nasional, will decline, but how much it will decline remains to be seen.
UMNO retains some support in the southern states of the peninsula, but overall, PN is likely to end up with more seats than the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional coalition.
This makes the parties in Sabah and Sarawak the kingmakers, so it would be a mistake for any peninsular party to take them for granted.
If Anwar wants to return to the prime ministership, he needs the Hope Alliance to retain as many seats as possible and retain the support of Sabah and Sarawak.
Given that DAP is very likely to retain its 40 seats, this means the focus will be on PKR and Amanah to retain as many of their seats as possible.
The best-case scenario for Anwar is not only that Pakatan Harapan retains seats, but also that it retains Umno as a partner even if it loses some seats, and maintains support in Sabah and Sarawak.
This would allow him to secure a second term.
But for PN, hopes are high that they can snatch many seats from Umno and PKR, and eat into some of the support from Amanah, which currently holds eight seats.
Assuming PN can snatch 20 seats from the Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional coalition, they will have 94 seats in Parliament.
Sabah and Sarawak will once again be the kingmakers and if Perikatan Nasional can induce them to switch sides, it will be able to nominate its own man for the post of prime minister.
Clearly, both sides of the peninsula’s political spectrum believe they can win the 16th general election. However, some uncertainties remain.
The big question is whether UMNO will collapse? UMNO’s leadership issues are worrisome, and the Najib Razak factor has caused some instability within the party.
Second, Pakatan Harapan may try to regain non-Malay support by changing its style of government, although this is unlikely to happen given the attitude of the current leadership.
Third, some black swan event could happen, such as PAS joining the coalition government or DAP joining Perikatan Nasional. That would change everything.
Finally, Sabah or Sarawak may insist on having a member of their own party as prime minister in the next government.
With multiple candidates vying for the prime ministership, Anwar’s self-positioning as an insider will work in his favour.
The Federal Constitution provides for discretion in selecting the Prime Minister under Article 40(2)(a) and this has been fully exercised in the appointment of the past three Prime Ministers.
Therefore, any candidate for prime minister from any other party must take this incumbency factor into account.
Economic management may prove to be the coalition government’s Achilles’ heel.
Anwar’s government is actually undertaking some difficult and unpopular economic reforms, including subsidy rationalisation and a shift away from the public sector pension scheme to the Employees Provident Fund (EPF).
Difficult economic reforms tend to hurt and do not win votes, as the results of the Pagar River by-election showed.
The government has another three years to prove that its economic plan will benefit the people.
Time will tell whether this will be a major factor in determining the outcome of the next general election.
Perhaps Anwar’s best strategy is to focus on the issues that people voted for.
The Kuomintang believes that being a largely silent opposition party has its advantages.
By remaining relatively silent, it will only cost the coalition government votes, rather than working to win them.
From this perspective, KMT strategists are smarter than Pakatan Harapan.
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