“Brothers” at the door. Will Putin launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine? — UNIAN

It is not the first time that the Kremlin has declared that the “range of challenges” facing Russia has expanded, including from the West. Russia intends to respond to these “challenges” with its military and weapons, as is almost always the case. Given the huge risks in Ukraine, UNIAN is examining whether Ukraine could become the stage for such a confrontation.

The G7 summit, the NATO summit and the EU-US summit are among the events that US President Biden will attend during his first trip to Europe. After negotiations with allies, there will also be a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. They will discuss a lot of issues. Many of them are not pleasant for Russia. And it cannot be ruled out that one of the “arguments” traditionally used by the Kremlin is its favorite trick – the threat of force. In addition, a large number of Russian troops have been withdrawn to the Ukrainian border.

Five major threats

Kostiantin Mashovits, coordinator of the OSINT team of the Information Resistance Organization and military expert, pointed out that Russia is strengthening its military potential in the Western, Southern and Central Military Districts. In particular, the deployment of troops in the southwest of Russia is aimed at Ukraine.

Experts say that today Russia has established military groups of operational and tactical scale in five main areas:

• Chernihiv and Sumy regions;
• Kharkiv region;
• Donbass;
• The coast of the Sea of ​​Azov; and
• Crimea.

According to the military buildup, the Information Resistance believes that the most important direction for Russia is the south. These directions include Odessa, Nikolayev, Kherson regions, and part of the Zaporizhia region. In addition, there is a potential threat in the Chernigov direction. Kostiantin Mashovets believes that this is because it is the shortest path to the Ukrainian capital of Kiev.

Experts believe that the total number of troops near the Ukrainian border – from Chernihiv Oblast to the border with Crimea – is currently about 100,000 to 120,000. In addition, after the Crimean Peninsula was occupied by Russia, the Kremlin deployed up to 30,000 inter-service troops in the region.

Kostiantin Mashovits believes that the seriousness of the Kremlin’s intentions is reflected in the sufficient number of high-precision missile carriers, Kalibr cruise missiles, operational-tactical missile systems, and the large number of ground forces assembled in the south. The capabilities of the Black Sea Fleet have also been enhanced, with the deployment of several highly mobile formations, including the 7th Airborne Assault Brigade and individual units of the Airborne Forces and Marines.

Large-scale preparation

Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (2006-2010), noted that this number of Russian troops is not enough to launch an offensive. According to him, to launch a large-scale war against Ukraine, Russia needs about 240,000 soldiers. That is, the force needs to be more than doubled. But unfortunately, Russia can do this at any time, and very quickly.

He said: “The Russian General Staff has completed the relevant operations, they have made calculations, developed support and logistics. The problem now lies in the military-political aspect. In terms of the number of troops remaining on the border, there are about 100,000 people. With these troops, medium-level local hostilities can be launched. For this, they have enough troops, forces, means, weapons and support plans.”

In other words, Russia has deployed troops to the Ukrainian border and temporarily occupied Ukrainian territory under the guise of various “exercises”. This can be said to be the first stage of the deployment of troops.

Romanenko noted that in the second stage, they could transfer the required number of troops within a week, including using the Debaltsev railway hub and military transport aircraft. For this purpose, they could use the runways of the destroyed Donetsk and Luhansk airports – the scene of fierce fighting in the early stages of the war.

The lieutenant general recalled that Russia’s recent “exercises” in Crimea were precisely practicing large-scale landings.

“Belarusian Card”

Another point Ihor Romanenko stressed was the Belarusian factor. He believed that the Russian Federation had been preparing for this “military foothold” for three to five years, actively conducting joint exercises, deploying troops, including air defense forces, and keeping troops on the territory of Belarus, which is currently led by the rogue Alexander Lukashenko.

Officially, there are currently two military facilities in Belarus that are controlled by Russia – the 43rd Naval Regional Communications Center in the Minsk region and the 474th Independent Radio Engineering Center in the Brest region. Curiously, the basis for this “cooperation” stipulated in the intergovernmental agreements between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus could have been terminated last summer (these agreements were about to expire, and Belarus could terminate them after notifying the other party). But on the eve of the Belarusian presidential elections (everyone remembers how the elections turned out, and how the results still haunt the country), Lukashenko did not dare to do so. Previously, however, he had done everything he could to resist the question of the expansion of Russia’s presence in Belarus, especially when the Kremlin demanded control of another site – the air force base outside Bobruisk.

“Now the Russians will not ask any permission specifically from the Belarusians – they will just go there directly. Moreover, they will put pressure on them so that they will, if necessary, take part in these possible hostilities under the so-called ‘pretext’ of fighting ‘terrorists’. We saw in the recent forced landing of the passenger plane that Lukashenko, as a dictator, is already in pain. In this situation, he is capable of anything,” said Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko.

Strike plans have been drawn up

Russia is therefore well prepared. And the Kremlin may well have a two-strike plan in place that could almost split Ukraine in two.

“Strong Russian forces are deployed in the border areas – in Sumy Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, Donbass city and the coast of the Sea of ​​Azov – which have pinned down a considerable part of the Ukrainian army. The main strikes are being carried out in Chernihiv Oblast and in the south,” Kostetan Mashovets explained.

He said that “if Belarus is fully annexed,” a powerful force would be formed on the territory of another of Ukraine’s northern neighbors under the guise of the Russian-Belarusian West 2021 exercises.

“Thus, a split strike could be carried out, cutting off eastern and southern Ukraine from the center and west. Strategically, this scenario is the most likely,” Mashovits said.

“In theory, we can say that they (the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation) can launch a large-scale war with Ukraine in a short period of time. But aggression of medium intensity is more likely to put pressure on the Ukrainian leadership,” added Ihor Romanenko, who is also convinced that Russia can use the West-2021 exercises as an excuse for a covert shift to actual hostilities.

However, according to experts, the Kremlin does not want to impose additional sanctions. Putin understands that it is cheaper to achieve its goals through pressure and economic influence. But if this does not work, military force can be used directly.

“Most likely, Putin will decide on this issue after the summit with Biden and possibly with Zelensky,” the general affirmed.

But that doesn’t mean Ukraine doesn’t need to prepare for the worst.

Forewarned is forearmed

“While we do have air defense capabilities and are stepping up efforts in that regard, we do not yet have anti-missile defense capabilities. Cruise missiles can still be countered, but defending against ballistic missiles will be a serious problem,” said Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko.

He recalled that the country’s leadership is working to ensure that Ukraine receives the American Patriot air defense missile system, but this will take time and a lot of money.

At the same time, Kostiantin Mashovits said that we should carefully monitor “the location, deployment sites and status of high-precision long-range and air strike weapons delivery vehicles”. “I am referring to aviation, missile delivery vehicles, including sea-based missile delivery vehicles of the Black Sea Fleet and the Caspian Fleet, as well as electronic warfare and electronic intelligence tools that our enemies have been using against Ukraine,” the expert urged.

In addition, according to the modern concept of the use of force, it is necessary to pay attention to certain types of weapons that are most likely to be used in any operation or military operation for a full-scale invasion. In particular, according to Mashovitz, it is not superfluous to track the actions of Russian special operations forces and various special forces, because these forces will be the vanguard of Russian hybrid operations if a decision is made to conduct an aggression in a hybrid form.

Sergey Krivonos, a general of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and former deputy secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, said that by the fall of 2021, we should have a clear action plan. We should not comfort ourselves that after meeting with the Europeans and Americans, the Russians will suddenly be friendlier to us.

“The situation on Ukraine’s border could start to escalate this fall. We need to pay close attention to nation-building and national defense,” he said.

“The president must realize that Russia is waging war to completely destroy Ukraine as an independent state and the Ukrainian people as a nation. A big war is coming and we need to unite and make our country strong as soon as possible,” the retired general urged.

He said modern warfare is not a question of quantity, but of quality and the ability to use weapons, including a large number of high-precision weapons that Russia possesses. But apart from the Ukrainians themselves, who should unite to confront the Russian threat, almost no one will help us.

Kostiantin Honcharov, Tetiana Urbanskaya