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Daniel Levy, director of the US/Middle East Project and a former Israeli negotiator, said U.S. diplomacy in Gaza is a failure and all it has done is strengthen the hand of Netanyahu, who would rather continue the war than reach a deal.
In an article published in the British newspaper The Guardian, he stressed: “The Biden administration’s diplomatic activities in the Middle East are still in an intense stage. In order to prevent the outbreak of regional war, efforts will continue and there is optimism about reaching an agreement in Gaza.”
He said the region appeared to be heading towards all-out war after Israel’s latest round of extrajudicial killings in Beirut and Tehran and intense fighting between Hezbollah and Israel, and preventing that from happening was a problem worth solving in itself.
Levy added that given the campaign and the unpopularity of the policies pursued by Democrats from Gaza, Israel and the Middle East, and the impact this has on the ballot boxes in key states, there is a compelling political reason for a Democratic administration to avoid further war and seek to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough.
He argued that relying on deals to counter local political criticism was useful during the Democratic National Convention in Chicago this month, and that the tool will continue to be needed through Nov. 5.
I believe that the Biden team is working on a difficult trilogy. First, the Biden administration is working to prevent the Iranian axis from responding to Israel’s recent attacks on Tehran and Beirut. There is no doubt that Joe Biden wants to reach a ceasefire agreement that Iran is unwilling to change, while buying time to mobilize US military forces in the region as an influence card against Iran.
He said the United States, Israel’s main ally in the region, was first trying to restore deterrence and freedom to conduct military operations after the current conflict shifted the balance of power against the United States.
Second, the Biden administration hopes to have a positive achievement on Election Day and stop the divisive war or its consequences, or at least avoid further escalation that would threaten the entire region and force the United States to intervene in Israel’s defense.
Third, and more speculatively, the Biden administration may want to end the brutal destruction and killing of Palestinian civilians in Gaza and address the humanitarian crisis and hellish torture inflicted on Gaza and their families by Israelis. Therefore, a ceasefire may be beneficial to the United States and protect its interests and reputation from further damage, as Biden provided political cover for Israel and continued to send weapons to Israel throughout the war.
The author believes that “if two of the above three goals can be achieved, it will be an acceptable achievement.” Achieving this goal becomes easy because Iran and the resistance axis refuse to fall into the trap of all-out war. Failure to achieve a ceasefire means that everything will fall apart and the region will continue to boil. If the ceasefire negotiations break down, the US government will find it difficult to maintain de-escalation of tensions and internal political calm, especially given the high expectations the administration has stated. ”
“Unfortunately, the direction of events has been taken for the worse, either by the disorganized and dishonest diplomatic push by the United States, or by a combination of both,” Levy said, adding that ending human suffering in Gaza and repatriating Israelis held by Hamas are certainly good reasons to do everything possible to achieve a ceasefire.
The Biden administration is powerless
However, Levy claims that the Biden administration is extremely unable to treat Palestinians equally with the same humanity and dignity as Israeli Jews, which is one of the reasons why this has such a serious impact on the Democratic voter base. Levy believes that the Biden administration’s approach is deeply flawed, and that these flaws have been exacerbated by Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent mission, with serious consequences that deserve consideration and deconstruction.
He believes that alarm bells should have sounded when Blinken announced at a recent press conference in Jerusalem that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accepted a US proposal to “bridge the divide,” only for Netanyahu to then announce that such a thing had not happened. Hours later, Israel’s lead negotiator, Nitzan Alon, made it clear that he would not attend the talks in protest of Netanyahu’s sabotage of the deal.
Subsequently, senior US and Israeli security officials spoke anonymously to the media, saying Netanyahu was blocking a deal. The main forum representing the families of Israeli detainees reached and published similar conclusions.
The author noted that Blinken’s ninth visit to Israel since the October 7 attack not only failed to mediate between Israel and Hamas, but even failed to bridge the differences between the competing camps in Israel.
Levy noted that the United States’ refusal to take Hamas’s legitimate negotiating position seriously, which must be part of a substantive agreement that the United States ostensibly agrees to, such as a complete Israeli withdrawal and a permanent ceasefire, has led to the repeated failure of U.S.-led negotiations.
The author argues that reformulating Israel’s proposal and presenting it as the US position will not make it attractive, even if it leaves a negative impression. It will also not lead to any progress, and given Netanyahu’s constant goalposts to avoid a deal, it will not even maintain Israel’s support. Levy says the US has no credibility as a mediator, which is a problem in itself. The fact that it conspired to make its contribution not only ineffective but counterproductive is devastating.
Itamar Eichner, diplomatic correspondent for Israeli newspaper Yediot Al-Assad, described Blinken’s visit as revealing “naivety and lack of literalism, even to the point of actually undermining the deal by aligning with Netanyahu.”
Levy believes that the US government’s dealings with Netanyahu are well known and in his preferred territory. Netanyahu knows that he will win if he convinces the US mediators and forces him to place the blame on the Palestinian side regardless of the facts, whether it was Arafat during the Oslo period or Hamas today.
Even though the U.S. has changed its proposals to accommodate Netanyahu, who continues to distance himself from the terms and under pressure from the defense establishment, Biden and senior U.S. officials are continuing their public disinformation campaign, saying Hamas is the problem and must be addressed.
Levy said the U.S. administration, frustrated with Netanyahu, is working to strengthen him domestically. Netanyahu’s basic line since the start of the current war has been that while there is internal pressure to reach a deal that would free the detainees and stop the war, on the other hand, this is the most ominous position: If such a deal is reached, it will upend Netanyahu’s extremist ruling coalition and end the most important political shield he has built for himself: “his image as Israel’s indispensable leader in times of war.”
Levy stressed that Netanyahu, in addition to actively dragging the United States into a regional conflict with Iran, is also using ideological means to expel Palestinians and deprive them of their rights.
His short-term political goal is to maintain an open war that could reach varying degrees of intensity, but without reaching an agreement. Where would the change end, Levy asked? Given the current tensions, a full-scale regional war is likely to break out, and in addition to the risks and losses that would entail, the outbreak of a wider war would lead to a more serious external push for a comprehensive ceasefire.
Ultimately, Levy said, Israel’s coalition politics could also spell trouble for Netanyahu, given tensions among his governing allies, especially with ultra-Orthodox parties over the issue of conscription. While the safest way to ease tensions in the region and end terror in Gaza remains to use U.S. influence in a meaningful way, that is, through legal, political and economic pressure and sanctions, especially an arms embargo. Ultimately, Netanyahu is an uncontrollable cannon, and Kamala Harris has no interest in reloading it, especially ten weeks before the election.
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