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According to Bceao, the rise in grain prices in June 2024 was caused by a combination of supply factors, including increased tensions in the EU cereal market due to reduced supplies following mixed results from the 2023/2024 agricultural campaign (+2.0% compared to +17.0%). The tuber market was also affected by the poor production in 2023/2024 (+1% compared to +4%).
Trade restrictions, continued insecurity, the removal of subsidies on certain products and restrictions on the release of consumer goods also contributed to food inflation. In addition, Bceao explained that the international environment was affected by the accelerated growth of freight costs (+215.1% in May 2024 compared to +113.5% in May 2025) due to increases in insurance premiums and logistics costs.
As a result, EU food prices rose by +6.4% in June 2024, compared to +6.2% in May, with notable increases in cereal prices (+11.3% compared to +8 .1% in May) and dried vegetable prices (+10.9% compared to +10.7%). The persistence index2 increased from 0.46 in December 2023 to 0.52 in June 2024, indicating a widening gap between current food inflation and its long-term trend.
As for the “Transport” component, its deceleration can be attributed to the fact that fuel pump prices in EU countries have remained stable for more than a year against the backdrop of a slowdown in the rise of world fuel prices. As for the “Restaurants and Hotels” function, the changes recorded are related to the decline in prices of accommodation-related services (+3.7% compared to +4.3%).
Analysis by country shows that inflation accelerated in Niger (+15.4% vs. +13.0%), Togo (+4.3% vs. +3.9%) and Mali (+4.2% vs. +1.2%). On the other hand, deceleration was seen in Benin (+2.3%+0.8%), Senegal (+2.1%+1.3%), Burkina Faso (+3.4%+2.4%) and Guinea-Bissau (+2.6% vs. +3.2%).
Core inflation, which excludes fresh produce and energy prices, is expected to remain stable at 2.4% in May 2024.
Adou Faye
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