As a result, Hezbollah has become the main and most dangerous threat to Israel – from Israeli media

Over the past few months, and especially since the Iranian attack on Israel in April, this war has transformed from an extremely violent but also deadly Israeli-Palestinian affair into a full-blown regional war, the outcome of which will be of vital importance to the strategic security position of Israel and its people, as well as to their survival.

Moreover, Hezbollah, which forms the tip of Iran’s spear, has recently become the main threat that Israel must urgently eliminate, not only because it is able to depopulate the northern Galilee region and create destruction and fire in the area, but also because it now prevents some 50,000 Israeli hostages from returning home as long as Nasrallah or Khamenei do not allow it.

While the Israeli army, in addition to successfully preventing the outbreak of the uprising through violent activities in the West Bank, almost brought Hamas’ military power to its knees and severely weakened its civilian capacity through its invasion of the Gaza Strip, the army has hardly been able to achieve any significant strategic objectives on the northern front. Contrary to the army’s expectations, the signs of destruction and devastation in the Gaza Strip have not succeeded in deterring the Lebanese organization or its Iranian supporters. The strategic significance here is obvious: if Israel does not resolve the confrontation in the north in a clear way, restoring its deterrent power not only against Hezbollah but also against Iran, then within a few years we will face repeated attacks against Iran. Exhausting Israel militarily and psychologically and forcing its collapse from within.

This trend will become even more serious when Iran not long ago had nuclear weapons or the ability to produce such weapons in a few weeks. Most importantly, Israel must change its war goals; it will not be enough to just militarily bring Hamas to its knees and release the hostages, as the northern front has become a task at this point, and it will not be enough to restore the situation there to its previous state and pray that Hezbollah’s missiles and drones rust over time.

Signing a treaty is not enough

The situation that Hezbollah has created in the north over the past few months also requires a fundamental change in the arrangement of security priorities and war objectives, moving the party ten kilometers or even more from the border without a border. The deterrence of Hezbollah or Iran will not change the strategic threat in southern Lebanon. Moreover, the signing of a local treaty in southern Lebanon, even if the Israeli army strictly imposes one side, even if the army builds a massive defense system on the northern border, all this will not eliminate the real threat of a full-scale threat – ending the war, nor will it save us from the huge arsenal of missiles and drones that the party and Iran have.

What does it look like to achieve strategic victory in a regional war?

First: returning the hostages to Israel, either by agreement or through a massive, swift ground invasion of the main Gaza Strip area, which would deal an additional dangerous blow to the military capabilities of the Hamas movement and its tunnel system and constitute a pressure card on Sinwar.

Second: Another step needs to be implemented in the Gaza Strip, namely the destruction of the tunnels that still run under the Philadelphia axis and an agreement with Egypt that guarantees the closure of the border zone and the operation of the Gaza Strip at the Rafah Crossing.

Third: This must be implemented in the Gaza Strip, either after or during the implementation of the prisoner exchange agreement, or through additional large-scale and rapid military exercises in the Gaza Strip to reach a solution to manage the civil affairs of the Strip, using American assistance, with the help of the United Nations and moderate Arab countries, and the participation of international peace forces.

On the northern border: If the Israeli army and security system consider it possible to defeat Hezbollah in a short time by a full-scale air and ground assault on all of Lebanon, then it must be done now, even if the Israeli rear is forced to accept heavy, massive missile strikes. The march will take place in a few weeks, and it is not desirable to have this happen two or three years later, when Hezbollah will have increased numbers of precision missiles, and Iran may have nuclear weapons, which will force the inhabitants of the north to emigrate again after struggling to rebuild the areas destroyed by the war.

If the military and security system come to the conclusion that Israel will not be able to reduce the threat of Hezbollah missiles and drones, nor to defend against further Iranian attacks, then it would be better to reach a border agreement similar to Resolution 1701, which Israel issued. We must also provide the Security Council that ended the Second Lebanon War with enough ammunition and weapons to enable it to successfully deal with the threat of Iranian and Hezbollah attacks in a short period of time, which could occur in a few years.

There is another consideration that we should also keep in mind: coordination with the American side. It is unacceptable for Israel to launch a full-scale war in the north without the guarantee of all kinds of American assistance, and I am not just talking about political and logistical assistance here, but also assistance in terms of interception. The missiles and drones that will be aimed at us from the Iranian and Lebanese territories. We must also remember that a full-scale war to eliminate the threat of Hezbollah requires a deep invasion of Lebanese territory, but this invasion must be creative, cunning and bold to hit the most sensitive points of the Hezbollah and radical Shiite axis. Those who suggest attacking Lebanon’s electricity, water and transportation networks miss the real goal, which is better not to talk about now. We must remember that Lebanon is a fundamentally failed state, where electricity is provided through domestic generators and all its infrastructure has been destroyed or is on the verge of collapse.

The strikes should not be directed against Lebanon as a country, which is now closer to the Stone Age. Instead, the strikes should be directed against targets that will hurt Nasrallah and the Iranians and at least force them to postpone (if not cancel) their intention to destroy Israel through a continuous war of attrition. We must embrace the United States, and there is also a goal that must be achieved, which is to include Israel in the framework of a pro-Western Sunni regional defense system and alliance, while also including the United States, which will constitute a counterweight to the threat of the Iranian resistance axis.

Normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia is desirable, but it is not necessary for our existential security. However, it is a security necessity to integrate Israel into the regional defense system led by the United States in the face of the radical Shiite axis system led by Iran. . The achievement of these achievements requires prior agreement and coordination with the United States, and here we must make it clear without hesitation that Israel will not be able to achieve a local victory, or even a partial victory, in the strategic regional war that we are now witnessing without cooperation and active intervention on the part of the United States. The Prime Minister, who is about to leave for his address to the US House of Representatives and Senate, must bear in mind the renewal of our close alliance with our friends across the ocean and make it public in its finest details. One of his first tasks. Netanyahu’s speech to Congress is important, but even more important is to reach a clear and binding understanding with the Americans on the continuation of the management of the war, even if this requires painful concessions from Israel, endangering the security of the government coalition now led by Netanyahu. If we reach an understanding in Washington that allows us to achieve a strategic victory in this war, it can be assumed that the opposition will provide Netanyahu with a safety net.

Ron Ben Yishai

Palestine Research Institute of the New News