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Last Saturday, Rodolfo Saldain published a very good column in which he explained the great similarities between the Pit-Cnt referendum proposal and the 2008 law promoted by the CFK. The reality is clear, we have never faced such a certain and concrete risk of moving towards economic Kirchnerism. At this point, Uruguayan opinion leaders are well aware of the magnitude of the damage, but I believe they are not aware of the certain probability of this damage happening.
Many people don’t seem to actually believe this can happen, or that a referendum can be won. Some are playing under the conscious or unconscious assumption that it won’t succeed. I think that’s a huge mistake.
Comparisons are always unfair, but in some ways this is a bit like Brexit. In 2016, most of the British political and intellectual elite spent their time explaining the cruel inconveniences of Brexit, but they didn’t really believe that people could vote to leave. And so, one night in June of that year, all the elites were completely panicked, looking for an explanation for something they didn’t really think was possible.
Since that night, Britain has been searching for a “rational” way to deal with a huge madness that cannot really be fixed. Faced with decisions that are almost impossible to reverse, harm reduction has become the priority.
This is not far from what we are seeing in Uruguay right now. We are blissfully walking on the edge of an abyss, and much of the political elite is unaware of it. Some are in favor of jumping into the abyss, but worse is the attitude of those who know there is an abyss but neither support nor oppose jumping into it. The position of others who think we should not talk about the abyss in front of us also seems unreasonable.
Personally, I don’t think there are shortcuts to facing a challenge like this. You have to talk, explain and convince. There is persuasion in politics. There seems to be more than one person on both sides of the political spectrum who wants to skip this. The opposition’s formula seems to be to campaign without a position, and some in the ruling party suggest not talking about the issue and focusing on the raid because it is a more comfortable topic.
I have bad news for you. At some point, almost all Uruguayans will hear about this problem, and if they don’t speak out, those who spread this abyss will do it. We will all have to go to the polls that day, there are no shortcuts. You have to talk, explain and convince. Economists have nothing to say, political leaders have to explain, that’s their job.
Referendums can be won. We had two referendums in 2014 and 2019 that didn’t take place but came close. Both referendums had less structure than this one. It is reckless to believe that because most lists are not “sealed” the ballots won’t come out. The few known surveys show that over 40% are already willing to vote and over 20% don’t know.
It is a huge problem that so many people believe this cannot happen, and there is no data to support the theory. We are attempting a risk that is completely unacceptable and irreparable. He who plays with fire must get burned.
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