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(Central Nervous System): Colorado State University Hurricane researchers are still predicting that this Atlantic hurricane season will be unusually active, with a total of 23 named storms, down from the initial forecast of 25. Four named storms have passed so far, which means we may see another 19 named storms in the next three or four months. As TS Debby continues to sweep across the southeastern coast of the United States, experts warn that 10 or more of the storms could reach hurricane strength, with at least four storms expected to reach Category 3 or higher.
In a news release about their August forecast update, Colorado State University storm experts said they are taking the latest data into account as the season’s peak storm season approaches. While all seasonal forecasts are subject to uncertainty, the team is more confident than usual that this season will be extremely stormy.
They point to very warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic as a major factor in this season’s above-average hurricane season, as warm ocean water is a source of fuel for hurricanes. A warm Atlantic also leads to lower air pressure and a more unstable atmosphere, both of which are favorable for hurricane formation.
Additionally, vertical wind shear was observed to be well below normal in June and July. Below-normal shear early in the hurricane season is often associated with persistent below-average shear during the peak of the hurricane season from August to October.
Experts explain that the possible emergence of La Nina in the coming weeks will weaken westerly winds over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, favoring not only the formation of La Nina but also its strengthening. Even if La Nina does not hold, the Colorado State University team expects El Nino-Southern Oscillation neutral weather conditions to become cooler, which, combined with the extreme warmth in the Atlantic, will likely mean that temperatures this season will be well above normal.
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