Why were U.S. troops attacked in Iraq?

On Monday, an attack on Iraq’s Al Asad air base resulted in casualties At least five U.S. military personnel and two contractorsThe attack may have been an isolated incident, but there are signs that it could be part of a wider escalation in the region.

The attack comes at a time of escalating violence in the Middle East. Israel still waging war in Gazawho is also believed to have recently assassinated Hamas political leaders, Ismail Haniyehand Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr Iran, which supports Hamas and Hezbollah, has accused Israel of carrying out the attacks and is widely expected to retaliate. Now, uncertainty about how Iran will respond increases the likelihood of a wider conflict in the region.

It is not clear whether Iran was involved in the attack on Assad, and no group has yet claimed responsibility. There are groups in Iraq that are allied with Iran, such as the well-known Iraqi militia group Kata’ib HezbollahBut even if one of the groups was behind the attack, it does not necessarily mean it was ordered by Iran; Iran’s allies in Iraq sometimes act without explicit instructions.

But whatever the purpose behind Monday’s attacks, they are a reminder of how easily the conflict between Israel and Gaza can escalate — and get out of control.

Although Iraqi President Mohammed al-Sultan Announced in January His goal was to drive American troops out of his country, but 2,500 U.S. troops In Iraq, their mission is to fight the Islamic State.

The U.S. military has recently targeted a militia group known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).), who were accused of conspiring to launch drones to threaten U.S. facilities.

It is often assumed that the PMF is backed by Iran, and they are, but the reality is more complicated. Although Iran funds and equips militias in Iraq, they are not as closely tied to the Islamic Republic as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and have their own goals.

PMF is Technically, they belong to the Iraqi ArmyThey played an important role in the fight against ISIS, especially in the early stages of the conflict, as A recent RAND Corporation report states thatHowever, they do launch attacks to advance Iran’s foreign policy goals of defeating Israel and driving Americans out of the Middle East. For example, these groups have been launching rocket attacks on U.S. facilities since around 2020, when the U.S. Assassination of Qassem SoleimaniThe respected leader of the Iranian military, Although some of them happened as early as 2019.

So while Monday’s attack could be seen as a tit-for-tat response to last week’s U.S. attack, Four people diedThis could also be Iran’s response to the assassinations of Haniyeh and Shukur. This response is especially true given that Haniyeh was killed on Iranian soil, which humiliates Iran and its security forces. Although Iran blames Israel for the attack, Iranian leaders also see the United States as complicit due to the strength of the U.S.-Israel alliance.

The question is whether Iran can respond in a way that gets Israel and the United States to back off rather than continue to escalate the conflict. Colin ClarkA senior fellow at the Soufan Center told Vox.

“I think it’s a challenge for the Iranians, trying to find a way to respond that doesn’t appear powerless and doesn’t reveal themselves to be weak, but they also don’t want to overdo it.”

A response that is too strong could provoke further violence in Israel and even the United States, putting the world at risk of a larger war. But it is increasingly difficult to judge whether Israel and the United States can withstand Iran’s response. Ali WattsThe director of the International Crisis Group’s Iran project told Vox.

“I think that’s where the risk lies primarily, because (Iran believes) there is no deterrence without inflicting pain, and Israel is not a country that will just inflict pain and not respond — even if it is coerced by the United States,” Vaz said.

People start to worry about regional wars As tensions in the Middle East have continued to deteriorate since Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel, regional powers have begun to resort to so-called “rocket diplomacy” — essentially carefully planned attacks designed to send a message.

In the case of the air base attack, Vaz said the message could be that “if (the United States) fails to stop Israel after Iran’s retaliation for Haniyeh’s killing in Tehran, then the United States will be caught in the crossfire this time as well.”

How Iran and its allies respond to the latest assassinations will help determine the scale of the conflict and whether the balance of violence in places like Lebanon, where Israel and Hezbollah have traded rocket fire on Lebanon’s southern border and Israeli warplanes have sent sonic booms over Beirut, is tipped.

Any Iranian response to the killings of Haniyeh and Shukur would likely rely on Iran’s regional partners destroying Israel’s Iron Dome defense system with rockets, so that at least some of the munitions would be able to penetrate and cause some real damage — even casualties.

“Let’s say they end up killing a large number of Israeli civilians in missile or rocket attacks, which is possible if the Iron Dome defense system is overwhelmed and fails,” Clark said. “If they escalate, the Israelis, especially Netanyahu, will continue to pressure the United States to get more involved, which is not a good situation for the Iranians.”

Vaz said this is a real possibility and “Iran will adopt a more complex, multi-layered strategy.”

In this scenario, attacks and counterattacks would likely continue, and the death toll would rise, among Iran, its allies, and perhaps Israel as well.