Demographic outlook to 2050: More people born outside the Netherlands

Previously published CBS Population Forecast 2023-2070 The most likely future population trends are described, but there are uncertainties. Seven future scenarios The aim is to project the population in 2050 if changes in the number of children, life expectancy and immigration were different from population projections.

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Increase in residents born outside the Netherlands: from 3.4 million to 5.5 million

At the beginning of 2023, the Netherlands had 17.8 million inhabitants, of whom 2.8 million (16%) were born elsewhere. If average net immigration (immigration minus emigration) is relatively low, this group could grow to 3.4 million (16%) by 2050.Low mobility Under conditions of relatively high net migration, this figure could be as high as 5.5 million (labor and Growth The proportion of the population born outside the Netherlands will also increase, reaching 19% by 2050. Low mobility In the scenario, 26% labor Imagine.

In 2023, 15 million people will live in the Netherlands who were also born there. This number is expected to fall to 13.9 million (shrink scenario) or increase to 16.4 million (Growth However, in all scenarios, the number of people born in the Netherlands but with ancestry outside the Netherlands will increase, while the number of people of Dutch descent will decrease. In 2023, 73% of the total Dutch population will be of Dutch descent. By 2050, with lower immigration rates, 66% will still be of Dutch descent (Low mobility scenario). Higher net migration (labor and Growth In the 2019 global census scenario, the share of the Dutch population could drop to 58%.

Changes in the composition of residents born abroad in the Netherlands

In the past, many people came to the Netherlands from Turkey, Morocco, Suriname, Indonesia and the Dutch Caribbean (countries known as traditional countries of origin). The expansion of the EU, the internationalisation of the labour market and the increase in asylum migration have led to an increase in the number of countries of origin. In the future, people born in even more countries will live in the Netherlands. In 2023, 28% of immigrants came from traditional countries of origin. This share is likely to fall to 14% (2023). labor scenario) or 19% (in Low mobility By 2050, the number of immigrants from asylum immigration countries outside the EU, as well as labor immigration and study abroad immigration countries, will increase relatively.

In 2050, the proportion of people aged 20 to state retirement age who were born outside the Netherlands will increase

In 2023, the population aged 20 to 25 will reach 10.1 million. National retirement age. inside shrink and Low mobility In the first scenario, this number will remain the same; in the other scenarios, this number will increase slightly to 10.3 million. Growth Imagine.

By 2050, the number of people in this age group born outside the Netherlands will increase. The population in this age group will increase by 0.3 million (Low mobility scenario) and 2.1 million (labor and Growth In all scenarios, immigrants from countries outside the EU for labour and study will account for the largest share of immigrants. The number of non-Dutch-born people of Dutch descent will also increase in this age group, by around 500,000 (shrink scenario) and 700,000 (Growth In all scenarios, the number of people in this age group who were born in the Netherlands and have Dutch ancestry decreases.

In a parliamentary discussion with the Cabinet in 2018, the House of Representatives asked the Cabinet to assess the consequences of changes in the size and composition of the population in 2050. Therefore, the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) and Statistics Netherlands (CBS) designed seven future demographic scenarios at the request of the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment. These scenarios show what would happen if birth rates, life expectancy and immigration were different from the assumptions in the CBS population projections. In 2024, CBS updated the seven future demographic scenarios in the Population Outlook to 2050 on behalf of the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment. These projections complement the existing population projections published by CBS.

This edition of demographic scenarios is part of a larger project that also includes an in-depth study of the context of demographic trends and their possible impact on policies and society. This part of the project is being carried out by NIDI in collaboration with CBS. There will be a separate publication on this topic, available on the NIDI website and on the CBS Demographic Projections Dashboard.