“Iran and Hezbollah will work to avoid all-out war.” Vardanyan

Armenian RadarThe interlocutor was the political scientist Armen Vardanyan.

– Blinken said that Iran and Hezbollah may attack Israel in the next 24 hours. Will Iran declare war on Israel or take punitive measures to end this problem?

– I think that Iran and Hezbollah will try to avoid a large-scale war for now and only carry out targeted strikes against Israel, because there is a view and assumption that Israel is doing its utmost to push Iran into a major war. Iran will naturally try not to get involved, because getting involved in a war against Israel is tantamount to going to direct war with the United States. The United States has already announced that it will do everything possible to protect its ally Israel, and it is not in Iran’s interest to go to war with the United States. That is why Iran and its proxy forces, especially Hezbollah, will only carry out limited, localized, targeted strikes against Israel. On the one hand, Iran does not want to get involved in a major war with Israel. But on the other hand, it also has the problem of saving face, especially after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in the center of the capital; Iran must respond directly in some way. Otherwise, this will also be a heavy blow to the Iranian authorities. Therefore, Iran has a serious face problem.

– How beneficial or dangerous would a conflict between Iran and Israel be for the United States, given the upcoming presidential election?

– There is no benefit for the United States to intervene in the war between Israel and Israel, and it has nothing to do with the situation before this election. A few months ago, in April, Iran attacked Israel with its missile defense system, and the United States did everything to prevent it from turning into a large-scale regional war. Now, they will do everything to avoid a major disaster and avoid a large-scale regional war. International media reports that the United States is trying to persuade the Iranian authorities. This is done through mediation channels, so that Iran is limited to targeted strikes and the conflict will not turn into a large-scale war. Therefore, it is not in the interests of the United States to expand the escalation.

– If a war breaks out between Iran and Israel, what impact will it have on our region, especially Armenia?

– However, if a war breaks out between Iran and Israel, the whole region will explode like a powder keg. All the countries of the region will feel the consequences of such a big war in one way or another. Some countries will even be drawn into it voluntarily or forcibly. Of course, Armenia must remain neutral and will do so. However, if one of our neighbors, Iran, goes to war with another powerful country, then there will be instability near the borders of Armenia, which will always have unpredictable consequences. This, of course, is not in our interests.