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A number of high-profile assassinations between Iran and Israel have significantly heightened regional tensions, and diplomatic efforts stepped up on Monday to prevent further escalation. Governments have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon in light of the developments.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced late Sunday that Israel is “determined to be opposed toIran and its allied armed groups “are at war on all fronts.”
As Israel’s conflict with the Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza enters its 11th month, Israel is preparing for possible retaliation by the Iran-aligned “resistance axis” over the assassinations of two senior figures.
Israel has not commented directly on the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on Wednesday, hours after an Israeli strike in Beirut killed Hezbollah military chief Fuad Shukur.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasir Kanani said on Monday that “no one has the right to doubt Iran’s legitimate right to punish the Zionist regime for the death of Haniyeh.”
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told G7 leaders in a call on Sunday that the attack could happen within 24 to 48 hours and would likely be a joint operation by Hezbollah and Iran. Blinken urged diplomatic pressure on Tehran, Hezbollah and Israel to “exercise maximum restraint.”
UN human rights chief Volker Turk called on all parties and influential countries to take urgent action to ease “tensions”.
Israeli military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said Israel’s policy on protecting civilians “has not changed.”
Regional war risk
Experts and diplomats warn that any retaliation be opposed to Israel could soon spark a regional war. Turkey on Monday joined a number of countries in advising its citizens to leave Lebanon, where Hezbollah is based. Several airlines have also suspended or restricted flights to Lebanon.
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani expressed concern that the crisis could regionalize, starting in Lebanon, and urged all parties involved to avoid actions that could hinder dialogue and de-escalation.
Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi made a rare visit to Tehran to convey a message from King Abdullah II to President Massoud Pezeshkian. Political analyst Olayib Rantawi noted that Jordanian airspace could become a battleground for missile and anti-missile fire in the event of a conflict between Iran and Israel, but stressed that Amman would strongly oppose any violation of sovereignty.
Israel’s war with Hamas, sparked by an Oct. 7 attack by Hamas, has drawn in Iranian-backed fighters from Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen.
Ongoing cross-border conflict
Hezbollah and Israel exchange fire on an almost daily basis along the border. The Lebanese Health Ministry reported that two attacks on Mez Jabal and Houla killed four people, while Hezbollah claimed to have attacked an Israeli military base in northern Israel with a “drone loaded with explosives.”
Since October, cross-border violence has killed 549 people in Lebanon, most of them militants, but also at least 116 civilians. On the Israeli side, including in the annexed Golan Heights, 22 soldiers and 25 civilians have been killed.
Analysts expect a joint but measured response from Iran and its allies. Tehran expects Hezbollah to penetrate deeper into Israeli territory, targeting more than just military bases.
The United States, an ally of Israel, is sending more warships and fighter jets to the region. President Biden is scheduled to meet with his national security team later Monday to discuss developments in the Middle East.
Rocket attacks and ceasefire talks stall
Medical staff treat a wounded man as some 15 rockets were fired from the southern Gaza Strip into Israel on Monday, the Israeli military reported.
Efforts to broker a ceasefire and hostage release deal, brokered by Qatar, Egypt and the United States, have repeatedly been thwarted.
Hamas officials and some analysts, as well as Israeli protesters, accuse Netanyahu of prolonging the war to preserve his far-right ruling coalition.
Middle East expert Andreas Krieger said the assassination of Hamas’ chief ceasefire negotiator Haniyeh “does not indicate that Israel really wants a ceasefire.”
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