Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump in national and swing state polls

Kamala Harris entered the presidential race a little over two weeks ago As a vulnerable group.

Since then, the mood in the Democratic Party has been good — and Harris’s polls have gotten better. But not as good as you might think. At least not yet.

Trump is no longer the clear favorite to win, according to polls. But Harris doesn’t have a clear lead, either. pollingEspecially in swing states, this shows that the competition is very close and who wins will lose.

To be clear: This is a significant improvement for the Democrat compared to President Joe Biden’s numbers.

At the end of last year, Trump get Biden maintains a lead in polls nationwide and in nearly every swing state. Erasing that lead is a big deal for Democrats, and it helps explain the Trump campaign’s Waving Recently. Trump team idea They were sure they could beat Biden, but now they are no longer so sure.

But Harris’ victory also seems out of reach. In part, this is because Electoral CollegeNational polls don’t determine election results; swing states are the deciding factor. The situation in swing states is unclear.

Last week Bloomberg/Morning Consult Poll Overall, these polls are encouraging for Harris, showing her with a big lead in Michigan and smaller leads in Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. The problem is, these polls also show Trump ahead in Pennsylvania and North Carolina and tied in Georgia. If these polls are accurate, the election will hinge entirely on the results in Georgia.

And other recent swing state polls — fox, Public Policy Pollsand Emerson — shows Trump continuing to maintain narrow leads in most battleground states.

It’s possible that sparse swing-state polls haven’t caught up to Harris’s rising national momentum, and a slew of new polls show her on the verge of a clear advantage.

But in both 2016 and 2020, Trump performed much better in key Electoral College states than Democrats (and most pollsters) expected — enough to prevent Hillary Clinton from winning the popular vote and nearly prevent Biden from winning the popular vote. Harris’ main challenge will be to prevent that from happening again.

Over the past two weeks, the Democratic Party has performed just as well as expected, and even better than many experts predicted. With the complicated process of excluding Biden over, Harris has been readily accepted as his successor. Democrats believe they now have a real chance to win again. Despite being the current vice president, Harris can be said to be a representative of the new president in some ways – a 59-year-old woman of color who has never served as president before – in stark contrast to the 78-year-old former President Trump. She qualifies as a candidate for change.

Harris has also benefited from positive media coverage. In part because, objectively, things have been going well for her so far. But she has also benefited from what is often called “Honeymoon” phenomenon, where newly promoted political leaders receive positive coverage simply because they are new. But the honeymoon period eventually ends.

For example: Harris’ first debate in the 2019 Democratic presidential primary — when she criticized Biden’s opposition to school bus desegregation in the 1970s — was a Rapidly became popular — A huge success that made her Support surges in polls.

But she struggled to maintain the momentum as the campaign wore on. Days later, she admitted that her views on modern school busing were no different than Biden’s. Try to outline coherent health care policy. Her campaign “became a hotbed of farce and slander,” According to CNNShe ultimately dropped out of the race before voting began.

This time, Harris skillfully played the internal game to build party support for her campaign. Attracted an enthusiastic crowd,she Raised huge amounts of cashBut there are other things she hasn’t done. For example: She hasn’t given interviews or press conferences since Biden resigned, a move that Republicans complain. Her choice of running mate could also lead to dispute.

Democrats may hope that the honeymoon period can be extended for another three months. But it is inevitable that Harris will have controversy, as all presidential candidates do. Media coverage of her will at least become less positive. Her campaign’s prospects will depend on how she weathers the storm that is sure to come.