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Israel’s policy of strategic ambiguity regarding its nuclear weapons arsenal makes it “difficult to know” how far the current crisis in the Middle East is from escalating into nuclear war, a leading anti-nuclear weapons group has warned.
The Geneva-based Nobel Peace Prize-winning International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) said Israel’s strategy of neither confirming nor denying that it possesses nuclear weapons makes it difficult to predict whether an impending attack by Hezbollah or Iran would trigger nuclear retaliation.
“Little is known about Israel’s arsenal because it refuses to confirm or deny possessing such weapons, but experts believe Israel could deliver nuclear weapons using missiles, submarines and aircraft,” Susi Snyder, ICAN project coordinator, told Euractiv.
She added: “Israel is also vague about the circumstances under which nuclear weapons would be used, so it’s hard to know how close we are to using them.”
The assassination of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukur in Beirut and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week further heightened tensions in the Middle East. Both Lebanese and Palestinian militant groups are backed by Iran.
Israel has confirmed the killing of Shukur but has neither confirmed nor denied his involvement in Haniyeh’s death. Israel blames Hezbollah for a rocket attack on a soccer stadium in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights last month that killed 12 children.
Hezbollah has been engaged in a series of cross-Israel exchanges since Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel on October 7, killing about 1,200 Israelis and sparking the current Gaza war.
According to the Gaza Health Ministry, Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians.
EU continues to call for restraint
When asked about the possibility of further escalation of the current crisis, a European Commission spokesperson instructed Euractiv statement The Group of Seven foreign ministers issued a statement on Sunday urging all parties involved in the Middle East to “avoid continuing the current destructive cycle of retaliatory violence, reduce tensions and engage constructively to de-escalate the situation.”
The spokesman also confirmed that Enrique Moura, one of the top EU diplomats who was in Tehran at the time of Haniyeh’s assassination, had left Iran.
Both Mora and Haniya traveled to Tehran to attend the inauguration of Iran’s new president, Massoud Pezeshkian. Mora then held talks with senior Iranian officials and suggestion Said on social media that the relationship between the EU and Iran has entered a “new chapter.”
Citing “three sources with knowledge of the call,” Axios US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told G7 foreign ministers over the weekend that Iran and Hezbollah could launch an attack on Israel on Monday (August 5), according to reports.
On Friday (August 2), the United States sent more fighter jets and warships to the region in an apparent effort to deter Iran and Hezbollah from taking military action. Both countries have vowed to launch retaliatory attacks on Israel.
US President Joe Biden will also reportedly meet with his national security team on Monday to discuss the crisis.
Israel has had nuclear weapons since the 1960s. Repeatedly “Will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons into the Middle East.”
China, along with India and Pakistan, is one of three of the nine nuclear-weapon states that have not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons around the world.
Arms Control AssociationUS non-governmental organizations estimate that Israel currently possesses 90 plutonium-based nuclear warheads.
How to avoid a “disaster”
Snyder also stressed that “any use of nuclear weapons in the current crisis would bring disaster to the region and the world.”
“A single nuclear weapon could kill hundreds of thousands of civilians and injure many more; radioactive fallout could contaminate a large area, including the country where the weapon was used, especially if used against nearby targets, as has been the case in the Middle East,” she said.
Snyder also urged citizens to pressure the government to sign the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), a 2021 UN agreement that is stricter than the NPT and explicitly prohibits signatories from developing, possessing or threatening to use nuclear weapons.
“Policymakers and the public in countries that have not yet joined the treaty should encourage their governments to join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons without delay, as it is the only treaty that comprehensively prohibits nuclear weapons and provides for their elimination,” she said.
None of the world’s nine nuclear-weapon states have signed the TPNW. Except for Israel, the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France, North Korea, Pakistan and India all possess nuclear weapons.
(Editing by Chris Powers)
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