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What is causing the increase in global conflict?
Is it a lack of global leadership? Political polarization? Resource pressures and climate change?
David Miliband believes all of these factors are present, and more. For the past decade, the former British foreign secretary has led International Rescue Committee (IRC) is a global non-governmental organization working to provide assistance to refugees and other displaced persons on conflict fronts around the world.
recently Aspen Security ForumIn an interview with Vox, Miliband discussed Gaza, Ukraine, Sudan and other conflicts, as well as the new British government led by his former party, the Labour Party, with his brother Edward Miliband as energy secretary.
This conversation has been edited for brevity and clarity.
We now have several years of data showing the number of armed conflicts around the world. Increase Whether in terms of numbers or casualties, it can be said that the so-called “Long-term peace“Is it going to end?
The reason I don’t want to announce the end of the long peace is that the “peace” isn’t really peaceful. It implies that we are far from the golden age, and we shouldn’t fall into that trap.
What we do know is that there are now more than a dozen major conflicts—defined as those with more than 1,000 battlefield deaths in a year—and more than 50 civil wars of varying types. The two conflicts that have received the most attention, Ukraine and Gaza, are clearly different from the dominant civil wars. Sudan is a typical example.
Secondly, we also know that there are many conflicts in many countries. Cameroon, Nigeria or Myanmar.
Thirdly, as to what you said, we know that civilians are increasingly becoming the primary victims of conflicts and that internal conflicts are becoming increasingly internationalized.
So I think we’re in a period where we can describe as a flammable world. There’s a lot of tinder, a lot of things are on fire.
OK, let’s talk about what’s causing this war. What underlying structural factors do you think may be contributing to the increase in the number and severity of conflicts?
Well, resource pressure is a big factor in conflict, and that’s what you see Conflict/climate interfaceWe also know that political systems that cannot manage compromise are the root cause of conflict. This is true in Syria, and it is also true in Sudan.
We also know the divisiveness of social media Cause toxicity.
There’s also the question of the internationalization of conflict – more and more actors are thinking in regional terms and exerting power. I think the other thing is that the biggest factor in determining where civil wars start is There was one before. Therefore, failure to resolve conflicts will lead to more conflicts.
Recently, President Biden said he has done more for the United States, which has caused some controversy. Palestinian community Anyone can put pressure on Israel to allow more aid into Gaza. Given what you see in Gaza and the work the IRC is doing there, how do you assess the international community’s use of pressure to provide more aid?
This is a very complex — perhaps extremely complex — situation. But all these efforts have not brought any benefit to the Palestinians in Gaza or to the hostages being held in Gaza. As a result, the dire situation facing civilians is extremely frustrating.
We have said that the number of trucks entering an area is not an adequate measure of humanitarian aid. You can get trucks across the border, but what happens to the aid after it crosses?
Speaking of Sudan, it’s been about two decades since the Save Darfur campaign and the George W. Bush administration’s close relationship with the country. Given the staggering scale of the Sudanese crisis, does it feel like Sudan has faded from the global agenda?
There is no doubt that Sudan is not receiving as much global attention today as it was 20 years ago, when there was a huge loss of life but also a massive mobilization of the international community. The world has changed a lot since then. A lot of humility has been learned from mistakes and failures.
There is a lot of fatigue. People are also starting to insist on African solutions to African problems. So the African Union is taking the lead in diplomacy, rather than the UN Security Council, and that is a change.
But it is certainly getting worse, not better. It is the archetypal modern civil war: complex, involving internationally backed actors, and spreading across the region. It is a very dark picture.
And then on to Ukraine: This is very different from other conflicts. This is an interstate conflict, not a civil war. This is high on the international agenda. How is the humanitarian response different in a conflict like this?
First, it is very different because it is a middle-income country. Second, it borders Europe. Refugee influxes into rich countries are actually very rare. 75% of the world’s refugees Go to poorer parts of the worldThey go from Myanmar to Bangladesh, or from the Democratic Republic of Congo to Tanzania. And those who go to Europe are treated much better (much better than refugees from other conflict zones).
But on the Eastern Front, on the front lines, where we work, the situation is very similar to other conflict zones. Daily survival is a problem, and basic services for people with medical needs are not being met before. And the fighting continues, very intensely.
As someone who has worked in government and NGOs, how do you make the case to voters in countries like the UK or the US that these international priorities should be taken seriously, given how many serious issues are on the domestic agenda?
I think it’s very important that we don’t ask for solutions to international problems, but to domestic problems. We shouldn’t try to convince people that the quality of our schools or our streets is not a priority.
Having said that, we have seen from the COVID-19 pandemic that if we don’t solve problems abroad, problems may also come from abroad. We do need to recognize that this is an era in which countries are more interdependent.
What are your expectations for the new UK government in terms of the UK’s international role?
Well, I think what we’re seeing is that geography still matters. The new government has made it clear that they see (the UK’s) values and interests as aligned with those of its European neighbours. They don’t want to repeat the mistakes of Brexit, but there’s no point in pretending that the UK and Europe are in different places.
They want British diplomacy to play its part in the multilateral system. They will be watching the US election closely. And they will make clear that they see climate as a security issue, not just an environmental one.
Is there a particular conflict or pressing issue that you think deserves more attention but isn’t making the headlines like we discussed?
First, let’s not forget Syria. The Syrian problem has been going on for more than a decade. There are 7 million civilians outside Syria and the same number inside Syria. Displaced persons.
Don’t forget the Rohingya in Bangladesh and the 3 million citizens in Myanmar Internally displaced personsDon’t forget Afghanistan, where there are still huge economic needs. When the West withdrew militarily, it promised not to withdraw politically or developmentally.
Then there are places that are even less familiar to Western audiences: West Africa, especially Francophone Africa, a region that is both dynamic and challenging.
You know, we (IRC) are growing. I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing.
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