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Commenting on the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, U.S. President Joe Biden expressed “grave concern”. He called on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to reach a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip as soon as possible. Interestingly, U.S. President Biden promised in a telephone conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that day that the United States would remain loyal to Israel’s security in the face of any threats from Iran. “President Biden reiterated his commitment to Israel’s security in response to any threats from Iran, including proxy terrorist organizations such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis,” the White House said in a statement. During the meeting, Biden and Netanyahu also discussed “supporting Israel’s efforts to defend against ballistic missile and drone threats.” The statement also noted that support for these efforts could include “deploying U.S. defensive weapons in the region.”
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah issued a statement yesterday stating that there would be an “inevitable response” to the assassination of Hezbollah military leader Fuad Shukur, who was killed on the same day as Ismail Haniyeh.
According to sources close to Hezbollah, at a meeting in Tehran on Wednesday, Iranian officials and representatives of its proxy forces, including Hezbollah and Hamas, discussed possible responses to Israel. It is reported that the meeting discussed “whether Iran, Hezbollah and the Houthis should bomb Israeli targets at the same time, or whether each party should respond separately but in a coordinated manner.” An unnamed leader of the Iraqi Islamic Resistance Movement revealed the details of Iran’s retaliatory strike in a statement to AFP: “First, Iran will lead the first intervention against military targets with the participation of organizations from countries such as Iraq, Yemen and Syria, followed by a second attack with the intervention of Hezbollah. ”
Last night, Iranian state television announced that they would attack Israel in the coming hours. In short, Iran, the United States, and Israel all appear to be preparing for a major war in the Middle East. But what are the chances of victory for each side in this seemingly inevitable war?
Political commentator Heydar Oguz told Musavat.com that US President Joe Biden’s “concerns” about the intensification of a new war in the Middle East are nothing but lies “for example”:
“In any case, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu carried out known assassination plots in Iran and Lebanon after visiting the United States. I believe that Netanyahu went to the United States to discuss the war situation with Iran and returned to Israel with the approval of all the politicians he met. Immediately afterwards, he implemented the well-known conspiracy to trigger a war with Iran.”
Heydar Oguz linked the real reason for war with Iran to the possibility that Iran will complete nuclear weapons production and testing in the near future:
On the 21st of last month, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken virtually declared war on Iran in a speech at a security conference in Colorado. In his speech, he said that Iran could produce the fissile material needed for nuclear weapons in a week or two. The Secretary of State reiterated the US determination to prevent this and admitted that “the current situation is not good” in this field. Obviously, if Iran produces nuclear weapons in two weeks at the latest and the United States wants to prevent it, then the war planned for many years must start within this time frame. Otherwise, nuclear weapons will make Iran invulnerable and more difficult to deal with, like North Korea. It is very likely that Netanyahu hurried to the United States for this reason and met with the current President Joe Biden and the candidate for the future head of state Donald Trump. It seems that he has received guarantees of support from the authorities of both sides in the expected war. “
The political commentator believes that Iran knows that in a war with Israel, the strongman supported by the United States is on the opposite side, and he believes that our southern neighbor is trying to avoid war for this reason, but it is not easy to do so:
“Frankly speaking, I think Iran’s current declaration of war does not reflect its will. If he stayed in Iran, he would not have joined the war even if dozens of Ismail Haniya were killed in Tehran. Because this war, not only with Israel, but also with the United States. Iran does not have such strength. For this reason, Iran, which tries to avoid war, is subjected to severe tests every time and does not want to increase tensions. But the recent provocations have reached the point where Iran’s ability to avoid war is limited. Attacking the most protected place in the country’s capital, in addition to eliminating the military leaders of Hezbollah in Lebanon, is not easy for Iran to digest. There is a possibility that Iran will strike some artificial targets again to protect its dignity and be able to say to the public of the country “I have revenged”. If Iran does this, it will face a more serious blow next time, and this war will inevitably break out. I have already explained the reasons. Iran is only one step away from nuclear weapons, either now or never. Israel does not want to see a nuclear country challenge it in the Middle East. At that time, it will not be in the interests of the United States and European countries, nor in the interests of China and Russia.”
According to Heydar Oguz, Russia and China, which are considered Iran’s allies, are also interested in Iran’s participation in the war:
“Because they are also targets of the United States, and a major war in Iran would divert the attention of their common enemy, and their territory would not become a battlefield. For Russia in particular, the United States’ involvement in Iran is an opportunity to soar to the top. Especially because when Israel is at war, the powerful Jewish lobby in the United States prevents American weapons from being shipped elsewhere. In this way, Russia, which is left with only Ukraine, will have the opportunity to change the fate of the Ukrainian war in its favor. China may also see the Iran-Israel war as a surprise of fate and a blessing on a golden plate. Firstly, because the United States’ involvement in the Middle East will inevitably slow down its policy of encircling China in the Pacific, and Beijing will buy time to strengthen its military strength. Secondly, because Iran’s involvement in a war with Israel and the United States will increase China’s maneuverability in the Middle East. This will create an opportunity to launch a mediation mission between Arab countries and Iran. Therefore, as the conflict between Iran and Israel continues, China will seize the opportunity to control the Middle East.”
Heydar Oguz predicts that the country that will benefit most from the conflict between Iran and the United States will be China, and perhaps for this reason, Washington advises Tel Aviv not to escalate the conflict: “Tel Aviv is trying to make the most of the lost opportunity and eliminate its old enemy. China could be the biggest winner of the Iran-Iraq War.”
E. Mamadaliev,
Musawat
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