The consequences of the Japan-China competition for influence in Pacific island countries – Asian Issues

Given the great strategic importance of the Pacific Island countries and the growing competition between Japan and China for influence and status in these countries, the Japanese capital of Tokyo hosted the 10th Pacific Islands Summit from July 16 to 18, 2024. The Japan-Pacific Islands Leaders’ Meeting (PALM10), attended by Japan and the 18 member countries and regions of the Pacific Islands Forum, is held regularly in Tokyo every three years. The recent summit was co-chaired by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown, and many important issues and challenges were discussed, especially economic development, security and climate change.
The 10th Japan-Pacific Island Countries Leaders’ Summit is held at an important time. This is considering the background it holds. This can be explained as follows:
• Security and military rapprochement: Japan has been committed to strengthening its relations and alliances with Pacific island countries by providing support in many areas. Against this backdrop, Japan and Pacific island countries have tended to expand security and defense cooperation in recent years. Tokyo is working to enhance these countries’ maritime surveillance capabilities, as well as their ability to respond to climate and geopolitical risks and exchange visions on common security issues and challenges.
• China strengthens ties with Pacific island countries: Over the past period, China has worked to strengthen its ties with Pacific island countries by using a variety of tools and mechanisms, especially increasing economic and development assistance and diplomatic visits, such as security and defense cooperation.
• Sino-Japanese tensions: In recent years, relations between Beijing and Tokyo have been noticeably strained due to the two countries’ different positions on many fundamental issues concerning bilateral relations, especially Japan’s stance on the Taiwan crisis, which China sees as bias against what Beijing calls “Taiwan independence.”
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There are multiple considerations and motivations behind Japan and China’s interest in strengthening cooperative relations with Pacific island countries, which can be explained as follows:
• Japanese interests: Japan has many important interests in the Pacific island countries and regions. Chief among them is the retention of unrestricted access to Oceania’s sea lanes, both for naval and commercial vessels. Japan also imports natural resources from the Pacific island countries and is particularly dependent on fisheries located in those countries’ exclusive economic zones.
• China’s interests: The Pacific Island nations hold important strategic positions, particularly because they control large tracts of ocean and are close to Pacific commercial and sea lines of communication. This makes them of great strategic importance to China, despite their small geographic size and relatively small economies.
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Japan and China compete for influence and status in the Pacific island countries in many areas; the most notable features of this competition can be summarized as follows:
• Mutual criticism: In the context of its competition for influence with China, Japan is pushing Pacific island nations to take a stance that rejects what Tokyo sees as Beijing’s attempts to use force to change the status quo. This was reflected in a joint statement issued by Japan and the countries at the end of the summit, which firmly opposed any attempt to unilaterally change the status quo through the threat, use of force or coercion.
In response to this stance, China’s Foreign Ministry called on Japan and other Pacific countries to help promote regional peace, stability and development rather than criticize China.
• Security and military competition: Japan has been committed to strengthening its security and military presence in Pacific island countries since announcing the launch of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Initiative in 2016. The most prominent manifestations are visits by the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to ports and airports in these countries and exercises conducted by the Maritime Self-Defense Force with the Maritime Self-Defense Forces of Tonga, Fiji, the Solomon Islands, Palau, and other countries.
In turn, China has also committed to strengthening security and defense cooperation with Pacific island nations. China signed a security agreement with the Solomon Islands in 2022, and leaks show that it includes a clause allowing China to deploy military personnel in the Solomon Islands and use the country as an aerial surveillance base for other Pacific islands and Australia.
• Economic and development competition: Japan is involved in many infrastructure development projects in Pacific island countries in partnership with Australia and the United States. It is also a member of the Pacific Blue Partners program launched in June 2022 to coordinate aid to these countries.
At the recent summit, Japan and the Pacific island nations launched several new initiatives to strengthen economic cooperation, including Tokyo’s donation of a fisheries research vessel to the Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu to help them monitor fisheries stocks, and the Pacific Climate Resilience Initiative to help Pacific island nations mitigate the effects of climate change.
In return, China supports the economies of Pacific island nations through its Belt and Road Initiative by providing low-interest loans to build infrastructure projects. This has enabled it to expand the use of its fishing fleet.
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As the two countries compete for influence in the region, the competition between Japan and China to attract Pacific island countries to their camp will continue, which will present a variety of scenarios in the future. The following three scenarios can be presented:
• Scenario 1: This scenario assumes that Japan’s growing role and influence in the Pacific island region has prompted Japan to work to strengthen its engagement and interaction with Pacific island countries. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said before the summit that Japan intends to work to elevate its relations with Pacific island countries to a higher level in the future. The possibility of realizing this scenario is supported by the following: Leaders of 18 Pacific countries and island regions support Japan’s greater involvement in the region’s development.
However, there are still some obstacles to the realization of this vision, including: the lack of full support from these countries for Japan’s free and open Indo-Pacific initiative; Japan’s decision to release treated radioactive water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in the Pacific; and the International Atomic Energy Agency’s results that the unloading plan meets global safety standards, which are not supported by all Pacific island countries.
• Second Scenario: This scenario revolves around the future trend of China’s role increasing in the Pacific Islands region, as China possesses political, economic and military potential and capabilities that will help it achieve its various objectives in the region. The context of relations with the countries in the region.
However, there are some obstacles to the possibility of realizing this vision, the most obvious being the political will of these countries, especially their alliances with the United States, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. This makes it reluctant to accept any larger role for China in the future. Most governments in these countries prefer to cooperate with their neighbors rather than with China.
• Scenario 3: Pacific island nations adopt a policy of neutrality and do not take sides in the ongoing struggle for influence between Japan or China. This scenario is considered the most likely.
It can be said that the great strategic significance of the Pacific island countries and regions makes them an arena for competition between Japan and China. Each of them seeks to enhance its influence and status in these countries. This will achieve the fundamental interests of both countries in the political, economic and security fields. Although many scenarios have been proposed for the future of Japan-China competition in the Pacific island countries, whether it is to enhance Japan’s influence at the expense of China or to enhance Beijing’s influence at the expense of Tokyo; given the Pacific island countries’ keenness to prioritize their national interests, the possibility of these countries adopting a neutral policy is still the greatest, which was clearly reflected in the recent PALM10 summit hosted by Japan.

Center for Advanced Future Studies