Ten core indicators for municipal and regional elections

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Waldo Chacón, Political Scientist, Democracy Project. Miguel de Cervantes University.

Russ This October’s general election, Besides its obvious relevance to the elected authorities to be produced, A set of conclusions will be drawn on the electoral performance of the various political forces one year before the presidential and parliamentary elections.

Overall, these elections brought together very different events in terms of electoral mechanics. Elections include single-person elections, elections for local governors and mayors, and multi-person elections for councillors and local councillors.Additionally, the gubernatorial election will consider a run-off if no candidate reaches the 40% vote threshold, while the mayoral election is decided by a single round with a simple majority.

In total, there are 345 mayor elections, an equal number of councillor elections, 60 local councillor elections and 16 local governor elections.

Given this configuration, it can be argued that single-member elections (mayors and governors) provide a better measure of the relative strength of coalitions, whereas multi-member elections (councillors and caucuses) provide a more accurate assessment of the parties’ situations.

Relevant aspects for analyzing the next election results are as follows:

1- The impact of compulsory voting, Given that the last election was conducted on a voluntary basis and resulted in a large number of abstentions.

2- The case for independent candidatesboth in terms of numbers, voting percentages and electoral rates.

3- If the opposition as a whole receives close to 62% of the votes in the first constitutional referendum and the election of constituent deputies, or 45% of the votes in the second referendum.

4- If the right as a whole can surpass the historical voting percentages it has received in 34 years of democracy.

5– In the 2021 parliamentary elections, the parties that previously formed a coalition won 32% of the votes. But in the parliamentary elections in November of the same year, the vote share fell to 16.6%, and in the Constituent Assembly elections in 2022, the vote share fell to 14.9%. In this election, we will know which of the three previous percentages the votes received are close to.

6- The result of the competition between the Republican Party and the Chilean Vamos Group.

7- The result of the competition between the FA-PC list of MPs and the DC-PS-PPD list.

8- The order in which the district councils and government parties vote for their members.

9- The result was obtained by the Democratic Center Accord (Democratic Party of Amarillos) and the PDG.

10- The votes that the most radical left-wing forces (humanists, PP, PTR) can obtain outside the PC-FA axis, both in terms of vote share and number of elected persons.