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Posted on July 30, 2024
Lecture: 3 minutes.
The Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights came under rocket fire from Lebanon on Saturday. Hezbollah Denying any responsibility. The attack, which killed 12 young men in the Druze town of Majdal Shams, prompted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to promise a “harsh response,” but the shape and extent of that response remains unknown.
Experts have Announce Israel’s strategy is to increase pressure on Hezbollah while trying to contain escalation as it fights a war with Palestinian Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
An attack on southern Lebanon or as far as Beirut?
Orna Mizrahi, a Hezbollah expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), believes the response will be “more Chief Executive (The Israelis) have done so far, but this will be a response that Hezbollah can contain and will prevent a escalation into Total War« .
“The Israelis want to show that they are moving up a notch, but to what extent?” said Jean-Loup Samaan, a researcher at the French Institute for International Relations (IFRI) and an expert on Lebanon. “Are they going to Beirut? Or are they staying in the this In the south, what have they done so far? Will they stick to Hezbollah’s objectives or expand their operations to government infrastructure or AIRPORT? », the researcher asked. “At the moment, I don’t think we’re there yet.”
Land invasion?
Michael Horowitz, a geopolitical expert at Le Beck, a Middle East security consultancy, believes that “Israel able “Strike Hezbollah hard without touching Beirut, for example by targeting military targets elsewhere in the country within a few days.” Michael Horowitz agreed with other experts interviewed in that he considered a land invasion unlikely.
Since the Gaza war began on October 7, when Hamas launched an unprecedented attack, hundreds of thousands of Israelis have mobilized. ability Israel’s military expansion on two fronts is also a variable it has to deal with. “The Israeli military has long been preparing for war on multiple fronts, but that doesn’t mean it necessarily wants war,” commented Michael Horowitz.
A ground invasion is “the most dangerous and unpredictable scenario because of the presence of Israeli troops on the ground. terrain “It means that no one will back down,” he said. “The main problem is knowing how many troops Israel can leave in the Gaza Strip, because the situation there is very uncertain and Israeli soldiers have to return regularly to certain areas they previously claimed to have controlled,” analyzed Jean-Loup Samaan.
Even though she believes Israel’s response will be “small” to avoid war On a large scale, Orna Mizrahi believes that Israel “can face two fronts,” but “it will be costly and more difficult.”
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So what is the US response?
The international community, with the support of the United States and the United Nations, has mobilized to prevent the war from spreading from the Gaza Strip to Lebanon. “Israel must listen to and take into account the views of the United States, especially in Chief Executive This concerns Hezbollah because if the conflict escalates, Washington may need to intervene in support of Israel,” said Judge Michelle Horowitz.
Israel’s closest allyThe United States, its main arms supplier, has faced calls to freeze arms deliveries. “The ideas and demands of the Americans will be taken into consideration. wait Maybe (also) some Europeans are asking something,” believes Orna Mizrahi.
Since the outbreak of the Gaza war, Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed armed movement, has exchanged fire with Israel almost every day, claiming support for Hamas and the Palestinians. According to Israeli authorities, Hezbollah’s artillery fire has killed 22 soldiers and 24 civilians. About 60,000 people have been evacuated north Iseral’s.
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