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Predicting the impact of future climate on desertification in arid regions of Asia using AVHRR GIMMS NDVI3g data
go through Lijuan Miao, Peilong Ye, He Bin, Lizi Chen and Xuefeng Cui
exist Remote Sensor 2015, 7(4), 3863-3877
Abstract:
Dry Asia is the largest arid and semi-arid region in the Northern Hemisphere, suffering from land desertification. Vegetation NDVI has both overall improvements and regional degradations between 1982 and 2011. We analyzed future climate change in these regions using two ensemble averaging methods of CMIP5 data. The Bayesian model averaging method is more representative of future climate than the simple model averaging method, and the uncertainty represented by the ensemble of 22 models is also smaller. From 2006 to 2100, the mean growing season temperature value will increase by 2.9 °C, from 14.4 °C to 17.3 °C, under three climate scenarios (RCP 26, RCP 45, and RCP 85). We then performed multiple regression analysis on climate change compiled by the Climate Research Unit Database and vegetation greenness from the GIMMS NDVI3g dataset. Under the RCP 85 scenario, desertification trends generally accelerate in central and northern Central Asia, northwestern China (except Xinjiang), and the Mongolian Plateau (except central China). The desertification trend under RCP 85 scenario is more serious than that under RCP 26. Desertification in Asian drylands, especially the areas focused on in this study, requires further research on the impacts and adaptation of climate change.
bibliography
Duanyang Xu et al.. – Sensors, 2009
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