Kamala Harris is at a disadvantage in a 2024 race against Donald Trump

Public sentiment is absolutely jubilant as Democrats unite behind Vice President Kamala Harris as their possible new nominee. Now they want the party to have a candidate who can take on Trump and win.

Polling data has yet to support those hopes, with current data showing Harris on track to lose.

Harris’ approval rating is not good (38% approval, 50% disapproval) FiveThirtyEight average) She trails Trump nationally by about 2 points. generally,as well as rare people Polls Pitting Her battles with Trump in swing states have almost always shown her trailing, sometimes by a lot.

Now, maybe these polls don’t have much value because voters don’t really know Harris yet. Maybe she’ll run a smart and powerful campaign and win them over. Maybe the excitement her election brings to the race will increase enthusiasm.

But Harris also has some very glaring weaknesses as a candidate that could change the course of events.

That is, she will be attacked as a San Francisco liberal elite. She will be held accountable for the record of the Biden administration, rather than being able to start over. She also had her share of gaffes and personnel turmoil at the height of national politics.

(Her race and gender will also affect how people perceive her, but that’s no reason to think she can’t win. It’s worth judging her on her record and political profile.)

Trump has his own serious weaknesses, and Harris certainly has a good chance of winning. But she is not popular at the beginning, and she still needs to do some real work.

Biden’s withdrawal and support for Harris has caused great excitement among Democratic donors. $81 million In less than 24 hours, the money was pouring into campaign coffers.Anecdotally, I heard a great deal of optimism from people in my (educated, coastal) circles that Harris would be a superior candidate to Biden.

It’s true that if the presidential election were fought among educated coastal city dwellers, Harris would surely win handily. But realistically, the winning candidate would also need votes from other demographics, including some who are less favorable to educated coastal city dwellers.

Perhaps the biggest electoral event of the past decade has been Education polarizationCollege-educated voters have been increasingly leaning Democratic, while non-college-educated voters have been leaning Republican. Those shifts were arguably the decisive factor in pushing key Midwestern swing states — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan — to Trump in 2016. Biden — “Joe from Scranton” — Twist it a little In 2020, it was just enough to barely win the Electoral College. Trump makes significant progress Polls in 2017 suggest this trend is likely to continue.

Part of the reason is that some Democrats Debatedwhose national party has lost its ability to connect with non-college-educated voters, and whose donor and staff class is dominated by educated coastal elites who no longer speak the same “language” as swing state voters and whose values ​​differ greatly from theirs.

Harris is very good at speaking the language of the Democratic Party’s high-end voting base. It’s the reason she rose in San Francisco and California politics, and why she was initially enthusiastic about the 2020 presidential run. It’s also the main reason why she was still chosen as Biden’s running mate after that campaign failed (Biden’s campaign team is Also received a lot of donations after she was selected).

But can she convince Midwestern swing voters that she is on their side and doesn’t see them as “LamentableIs she not some out-of-touch liberal extremist in San Francisco? Can she “persuade” swing voters in a convincing way? We don’t know yet. While she has participated in some campaign events in swing states, running as a candidate means she will be in the spotlight in a new way, and the risks are much greater.

It may be unfair to blame Harris primarily for her low approval ratings because she is part of the Biden-Harris administration.

If a majority of Americans are unhappy with Harris’s administration, that will be problematic for her candidacy.

In their quest to unseat Biden, Democrats (who generally think he’s doing a good job) tend to blame his political woes on his age rather than his record. The policies, they argue, are good, but there’s a communication problem in explaining how good they are.

However, polls are fairly consistent that the American public thinks the government has handled Big Issues — Most notably, the economy, immigration and foreign policy, as well as voters Keep saying Trump will do better on all three.

Harris herself is not responsible for policies such as inflation, borders, the Afghan withdrawal, or the Israel-Gaza war. (Republicans mistakenly call her “Border Tsar” when in fact Harris’s remit is much more limited, addressing the “root causes” of illegal immigration overseas.)

Indeed, Harris has staunchly defended the administration’s policies on these issues. It’s hard for her to criticize any decision (because doing so would raise the question of why she didn’t do it sooner). It’s also hard for her to make the case that she would take a radically different approach than Biden, given that she’s been vice president for four years.

Typically, when new candidates run for president, they make idealistic promises of change and break with the incumbent in areas the public wants changed. That’s hard for Harris. She’s not starting from scratch; she’s carrying the burden of the past. And the public unhappy How things are going under the Biden administration.

Finally, there is the question of whether Harris can effectively and successfully run a presidential campaign. Meme-worthy Harris’s image of political appeal is widespread among Democrats eager to move on to a new chapter under Biden, but her track record at the top of national politics is mixed.

This started with her 2020 presidential campaign, which actually ended in December 2019. There is no shame in running in a party’s presidential primary and losing. Not every failure is the candidate’s “fault” but a reflection of the larger environment. Failure can set a candidate up well for success next time.

But Harris’ campaign has been rife with public missteps and reports of behind-the-scenes chaos.

She had a viral moment Facing Joe Biden On the debate stage, he consistently opposed school busing policies, but a few days later, She admitted Her views on current bus policy are not dissimilar from Biden’s.

Harris also It’s hard to answer questions On health care policy, she has at times appeared to support a universal health care plan that would eliminate private health insurance. At other times And said she did not support such things.

Internally, her campaign “became a hotbed of farce and slander,” According to CNNaccusations from rival factions continued to circulate. She gave her sister Maya a key role, According to the New York Times “One campaign strategist said it was impossible to tell whether Maya Harris was speaking for herself, as an adviser or as a representative of her sister.” But in both reports, sources suggested that the candidate’s own strategic indecision was perhaps the campaign’s biggest problem.

But none of that stopped Biden from choosing her as his running mate in 2020. Then, early in his term, a similar story unfolded in the vice president’s office. In June 2021, Harris told NBC’s Lester Holt in a high-profile interview. struggle She later cut short her interview after responding to a question about the government’s border policy by claiming “we’ve been to the border” even though she had not. It is said that (While Biden has received widespread attention for several high-profile interviews, it’s worth noting that Harris isn’t omnipresent.)

at the same time, story back story The turmoil and departure of staff in Harris’ office were described. A former assistant offered a scathing review. To The Washington Post“It’s clear that you didn’t work with someone who was willing to do the prep work. … With Kamala, you had to endure a constant stream of heart-wrenching criticism and her own lack of confidence. So you were always supporting a bully, but it wasn’t clear why.”

To be sure, Donald Trump’s campaign and White House staff disputes were far more intense (but that didn’t stop him from winning in 2016). Harris’s office is reportedly at odds with her. Has been reduced Harris may have found advisors who are a better fit for her over the past year or so. But now she is suddenly back in the spotlight, and with that comes the pressure. So the question now is, can she rise to the challenge of overseeing and implementing a strategy and team that can win?

This doesn’t mean Harris can’t win.

These issues could pose a serious challenge to her campaign. And, she is currently trailing in the polls. But challenges can be addressed, and polls can be changed. The election is still more than three months away.

Harris’s opponent Donald Trump Not popular eitherDemocrats hope she can use her past as a former prosecutor to “prosecute” the case against him. Trump didn’t do well in the first debate; if he agrees to do so, he could be at a disadvantage to Harris in another debate (and if he doesn’t, she could criticize him for it).

Harris would indeed energize the liberal base, and perhaps she would be more appealing Young voters and Black votersBiden has been giving her a run for her money. She clearly has more energy and campaigning ability than Biden has so far.

If the past month has taught us anything, it’s that the future of politics is never set in stone.