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As the Ukrainian front prepares for a difficult summer, Kiev must navigate a delicate diplomatic landscape, seeking to achieve Western solidarity while pushing peace talks on its own terms.
Between now and the fall, Ukraine is expected to fight Russia along a front of more than 1,000 kilometers to contain a Russian offensive. Hopefully, recent deliveries of weapons and ammunition from Western countries will help contain Russian forces.
US officials explain Russia is unlikely to make significant territorial gains in the coming months.
But beyond the battlefield situation, Kiev is increasingly concerned about political issues.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has seemed to be everywhere over the past few months, using every summit opportunity to demand leadership from participating countries along with his Western partners and to systematically try to engage with the Global South.
Zelensky speaks at Britain’s Blenheim Palace at the last summit of the quarter explain Russian President Vladimir Putin may try to single out individual leaders to “lure” or “blackmail” them into betraying other partners and undermining Western unity in support of Ukraine.
“If there are people in Europe who are trying to solve problems behind other people’s backs, even at the expense of other people’s interests, if there are people who want to secretly go to the war capital and talk or even promise something that goes against our common interests or at the expense of Ukraine or other countries, then why should we consider such people?”
For many EU diplomats, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is indeed Playing into Putin’s hands Visited Moscow and insisted that a peace deal must be reached to end the war in Ukraine.
But he called on Europe to work with incoming U.S. President Donald Trump to end the war, which for most European leaders means not interfering in Ukraine and exposing Europe to the risks of future Russian ambitions.
There seems to be a growing sense that, as things stand, the war is unlikely to end with a total victory for either Moscow or Kiev.
As the war in Russia drags on for two and a half years, Kiev is pursuing a plan to negotiate an end to the war on its own terms.
For the West, this means giving Kiev everything it can in order to one day have the best possible starting point in negotiations.
But it could also prompt Moscow to undermine Western unity so that it no longer has support on the battlefield.
In recent months, two different visions of the end have even emerged.
First, at the Swiss Peace Summit, Ukraine presented its ten-point peace plan to leaders and dignitaries of more than 90 countries except Russia.
The second one is Ceasefire proposal Russian President Vladimir Putin said. But for Ukraine, it would feel like a capitulation, as the conditions would be for Kiev to abandon its ambitions to join NATO and withdraw from four territories in eastern Ukraine that Russia unilaterally annexed after its full-scale invasion in 2022.
Switzerland Support for Ukraine’s ‘territorial integrity’But with some countries abstaining, Kiev hopes to hold a second meeting in the fall, this time with Russia’s participation, according to people familiar with the matter.
The urgency of finding a fair peace solution before the U.S. election in November also comes at a time when many have begun to believe that another Trump presidency could put Ukraine at a disadvantage.
Trump and Zelensky spoke by phone on Friday (July 19) about the matter, the former US president’s first call since leaving office in 2020.
trump card explain As president, he will “bring peace to the world and end this war that has killed so many people,” and Russia and Ukraine “will be able to come together and negotiate a deal that ends the violence.”
Zelensky In a statement He stressed the “vital bipartisan and bicameral support in the United States for protecting our nation’s freedom and independence.”
He added that the two sides agreed to “discuss in private meetings what measures would achieve a just and truly lasting peace.”
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said last week that Ukraine would find ways to counter Russian forces even if Trump wins a second term and jeopardizes vital U.S. support.
“Whatever the outcome of the US election, we will find a solution,” he said.
Wider Europe
Mediterranean Breeze | European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that she would Create a separate portfolio As part of her next team, she will be responsible for dealing with Mediterranean issues, indicating that she will pay more attention to the region during her next term.
As Euractiv previously reportedPreviously, there have been rumors that the EU will decentralize power to potential future candidate countries for joining the EU and countries considered “near neighbors”, such as North Africa and the Middle East.
EPC Struggle | This week, around 50 European leaders gathered in the UK, where it became increasingly clear that the format of the meeting, led by the European Community, would be Trying to justify its existence.
EU-UK Reset | Britain’s new Labour-led government is being touted Restarting after Brexit Closer cooperation with the EU and Europe to strengthen support for Ukraine and combat illegal migration.
What else do we read?
Next week we will focus on
- EU foreign ministers meet to discuss Ukraine, Middle East, and will have lunch with EIB’s Nadia Calvino
| Monday, July 22, 2024 | Brussels, Belgium - EU chief diplomat Borrell discusses Gaza at European Council on Foreign Relations event
| Tuesday, July 23, 2024 | Brussels, Belgium - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu delivers a speech to the US Congress
| Wednesday, July 24, 2024 | Washington, D.C., USA - ASEAN foreign ministers hold meeting
| Thursday, July 25, 2024 | Vientiane, Laos - Olympic Games Opening Ceremony
| Friday, July 26, 2024 | Paris, France
Previous Versions
(Editing by Alice Taylor)
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