What You Need to Know About Iran’s President-elect Pezeshkian

Iran’s reformist president-elect, Massoud Pezeshkian, narrowly defeated a hard-line candidate in the Islamic Republic’s election on Sunday. But given the long-standing priorities of the clerics, Iran’s ultimate source of power, Pezeshkian can only make limited changes in certain areas — and any reforms he succeeds in enacting are not guaranteed to last beyond his term.

Pezeshkian’s victory reveals a lot about the mood of the regime and ordinary Iranians under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The fact that Pezeshkian was able to run at all suggests that Khamenei and his allies, who oversee much of Iran’s government, understand that people are dissatisfied with the status quo, especially with the Brutal repression of protests and the Women, Life, Freedom Movement in 2022.

Still, some segments of the Iranian electorate remain opposed to reform, as evidenced by Pezeshkian’s rivals. former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili is a hardliner— The final gap between the two of them is smallAlthough we must approach the election results with a degree of skepticism given the Iranian leadership’s frequent dishonesty, the regime poured resources into Jalili and clearly wanted him to win. The fact that nearly half of the electorate voted for Jalili is indicative of deep polarization.

Complicating conclusions based on turnout is the widespread abstention of voters, either because Vote for boycott organizers, including activists from the Women, Life, and Liberty Movement, or simply due to voter apathy. Nearly 50% of eligible voters Of those who did vote, most voted for someone who at least promised limited change, increased transparency, and was willing to resist factional divisions and work to improve people’s lives.

“The precedent we’ve seen before is that whenever reformists — real reformists — run, they win.” He denied that Mortazavi“In some ways it was a surprise that he was allowed to run. But I wasn’t surprised that he won — even from the beginning, the polls showed him ahead. So it still shows that … most voters believe in reform and are unhappy,” said Nikki Haley, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy.

Although Iran has a new president, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Guardian Council are the ultimate decision-makers, especially in foreign affairs. Pezeshkian will be able to make limited changes domestically, but will still have to work within the framework of Iran’s theocracy.

“The president has ambitions, and he has made them clear, in the social sphere, in the economic sphere, and perhaps even in Iran’s foreign relations,” Sanam Vakil “But for the president to succeed, he has to build consensus across Iran’s political spectrum through the conservative-dominated Iranian institutions,” said a senior fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, a British think tank. “So for now, without that consensus, without support from within, he won’t have a lot of room to maneuver.”

It is unclear whether Pezeshkian will be able to build such a consensus. His campaign has little institutional support, and while he has expressed a commitment to cross-factional cooperation, conservatives have yet to truly express their support. Pezeshkian may come from the reform wing of parliament, but he is committed to the Islamic Republic and is committed to working with the regime.

“He was really a fringe reformer, not a radical or ideological reformer.” Ali Watts“That’s why he was able to stay in the system for so long,” said Alexei Mohammed, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group.

Still, Pezeshkian could make some changes — mostly on a societal level, such as relaxing the headscarf law that sparked massive, violent protests in 2022. The months of protests that followed were a response to Mahesa Amini’s death, but also reflected anger over oppressive conditions under Pezeshkian’s hardline predecessor, cleric Ibrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash in May. After Amini’s death, anger erupted over racial inequality, restrictions on women’s behavior and ultimately dire economic conditions caused by harsh sanctions, bureaucratic mismanagement and government corruption.

During the campaign, Pezeshkian denounced Amini’s death in custody and the subsequent crackdown on the protest movement, which has left many dead and thousands in jail. Mortazavi said relaxing the headscarf rules could have “an impact on the level of violence and harassment in terms of law enforcement.”

There is precedent; when reformist (factions, not parties — Iran has no parties) politicians come to power, such laws are less strictly enforced. “This is not just something we speculate or predict, this is something we saw during the administration of (Hassan) Rouhani,” Mortazavi said. Rouhani is the reformist president who helped negotiate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal2015.

Pezeshkian can also provide more services to minorities such as Kurds, Arabs, Baloch and Azerbaijanis. Pezeshkian himself It is Kurdish and Azerbaijani He is from Azerbaijan province, which has a large minority population and is one of the provinces that has long suffered from underinvestment and harsh repression of protests.

The economy — a serious issue for voters of almost every background and political leaning — could also be an area where Pezeshkian could advance and help improve people’s lives. But his ability to do so is limited, because Iran’s economic woes stem from three intertwined factors: crippling U.S. sanctions; rampant corruption and profiteering that sanctions have fostered, especially within the IRGC; and poor management.

Like Rouhani, Pezeshkian could also try to reach “more small-scale deals with Washington to further ease sanctions or increase oil sales,” Vakil said.

Pezeshkian could try to reduce inflation, currently around 50 percent, while also putting in place policies to try to get Iran off the blacklist of the Financial Action Task Force, the international anti-money laundering group, which would help open up trade with China.

“These little differences really matter to people,” Watts said, because it allows them “to live relatively normal lives.”

During his campaign, Pezeshkian made clear what he could and could not do—for example, he had little influence over the judiciary, so he might not be able to improve conditions for political prisoners.

Although Pezeshkian has also expressed a desire to be more open to the West, “he is not looking to make a grand deal with the United States or the West,” Vakil said. There are obstacles to such engagement – mainly the United States’ reluctance to do so.

Despite the New nuclear commitment If Iran sanctions benefit the economy, so-called “sanctions merchants” – Iranian officials and their cronies who profit from, for example, trafficking in black market goods – “will push back very heavily against that effort,” Vaz said.

Pezeshkian’s clean record may be one reason he appeals to voters fatigued by political malfeasance, and he has also floated ideas for reducing corruption, but these have also had limited impact.

“It would be useful to have a really deep and meaningful anti-corruption campaign, but it’s impossible,” Vakil said. Instead, greater transparency in contracts and decision-making is likely to be the scope of Pezeshkian’s reforms.

In terms of regional dynamics, not much has changed; he encouraged continued dialogue with Saudi Arabia, Following the easing of previously hostile relations between the two countries in 2023. and Some reports Pezeshkian and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah have pledged each other continued support. “The Islamic Republic always supports the resistance of the people of the region against the illegal Zionist regime,” Pezeshkian said. Allegedly wrote to Nasrallah.

Pezeshkian has little control over the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, so even if he wanted to significantly change the situation in the region, it would be impossible.

The bottom line is that a new president won’t radically change Iran any time soon. Pezeshkian won’t make much of a difference in the long run, though he might improve the lives of ordinary Iranians in the short term.