“Iran will soften its relations with the West.” Iranologist

Armenian RadarThe interlocutor was Iran expert TiI ran Davudyan.

– Iran’s newly elected President Massoud Pezeshkian invited Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to visit Iran. Aliyev accepted the invitation. How do you interpret this move of the newly elected president?

– In his message of congratulations to the newly elected Iranian president, the President of Azerbaijan invited Mr. Pezeshkian to visit Baku, and the Iranian president, in his thank-you speech, also invited Mr. Aliyev to visit Tehran. Iran and Azerbaijan have many issues to discuss, and the presidents of both countries naturally hope that these issues can be resolved within a day. These issues include the normal operation of the Azerbaijani Embassy in Iran, because a murder occurred in the embassy building two years ago, and Baku needs additional security measures. Both countries have large economic and commercial projects, and their implementation should be further promoted. One of them is the Araxes reservoir, and President Raisi attended the opening ceremony of the reservoir and suffered a plane crash after returning home. Azerbaijan has unilaterally closed its land border to Iranians and persecuted the main pro-Iranian religious groups.

– Can Iran’s new president change the country’s foreign policy?

– The Iranian president has limited power in the field of foreign policy. The foreign minister is usually responsible to the head of state, not to the president. Former Foreign Minister Zarif, who was also a teammate of Pezeshkian, has repeatedly complained about the interference of the “field commanders” – Maidan in the affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He was referring to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. There will be a big struggle in the parliament over the appointment of ministers, and Pezeshkian’s opportunities there will be very limited. These days, the newly elected president of Iran receives letters of congratulations and informs world leaders that Tehran is a supporter of peaceful and friendly relations. Mr. Pezeshkian also very warmly told the Armenian Prime Minister that Armenia occupies a special place among Iran’s neighbors. “The border between us, even if it is small, is a border of hope and peaceful life. Our basic policy towards you is unchangeable. We respect the territorial integrity of all countries and oppose the change of any internationally recognized borders. We welcome the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks and are ready to support them.”

– If the final decision rests with spiritual leader Ali Khamenei, can Pezeshkian successfully mediate relations with the West?

– There are many challenges in regulating relations between Iran and the West. How will the issues of Iran’s nuclear and missile development programs, cooperation with the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), Iran’s presence in the Middle East, who will be the new US president, etc. be resolved? Based on Iran’s economic situation and domestic and foreign policy views, Leader Khamenei will personally set the direction and distribute it to the presidential team. In my opinion, Iran’s relations with the West will soften, because if Trump succeeds, sanctions will be tightened, oil sales will become difficult, and popular protests will increase.