CSU raises 2024 hurricane forecast to 25: Cayman News Service

(CNS): As Beryl continues her A strange, record-breaking journey On Tuesday, hurricane experts at Colorado State University announced that they had slightly raised their forecasts “and continue to predict an exceptionally active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.” The renowned forecasting team cited very warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean hurricane development areas as one of the main factors.

In April this year, Tropical Weather and Climate Research Center at Colorado State University The panel had predicted at least 23 named storms but now says there could be 25, three of which have already formed: Alberto, Beryl and Chris. CSU predicts 12 of those 25 storms will become hurricanes, six of which will be Category 3 or higher, including the first major hurricane, Beryl. For the remaining five months of the storm season, the panel predicts a 62 percent chance of at least one major hurricane crossing the Caribbean.

“Extremely high sea surface temperatures provide a more favorable dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification,” said the team, led by Philip J. Klotzbach. “We expect a cold-neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation or La Nina to develop during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, leading to lower levels of vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic. Hurricane Beryl, a deep tropical Category 5 hurricane, is also a possible precursor to an active hurricane season. The confidence in this forecast is higher than normal.”

The team expects the likelihood of major hurricanes to be well above average along the continental U.S. coastline and in the Caribbean. They say their confidence in their July forecast is higher than normal this year, based on the strength and persistence of the current large-scale environmental conditions that are favorable for hurricanes.

“We present exceedance probabilities for hurricanes and accumulated cyclone energy to provide interested readers with a better understanding of the uncertainty of these forecasts. As the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches, the skill of CSU forecast updates will increase. Our early July forecasts have good long-term skill when evaluated using hindcasts,” they said, noting that model guidance continues to consistently point to an extremely active season.

However, as with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents need to be aware that the season becomes active as long as one hurricane makes landfall. Regardless of the forecast activity, adequate preparation should be made every season.