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The weakening of the left has halted the advance of the French far right at the expense of a divided parliament that is undoubtedly unprecedented in the country in recent decades.
Marine Le Pen’s defeat took place in the streets, with left-wing voters coming out to vote in historic turnout, uniting or enforcing a so-called “cordon de corps” against the far-right candidate of the National Rally party.
However, this victory has a bittersweet taste, because now the parliament is divided into three parts, so the left must reach an agreement to govern. In this situation, the weeks after the election are full of uncertainty, because it will not even be possible to form a viable relative majority, but everything will depend on the negotiation ability between the powerful forces – namely those composed of the NFP; the “Macronist” led coalition and the far-right coalition.
This task will be much more difficult than it seems, as three opposing groups have conflicting programs and ideas. Moreover, the increase in votes that Le Pen’s National Party has received in each election cannot be underestimated in any way: 8 votes in 2017, 89 votes in 2022 and 143 votes in 2024, the latter with the help of allies.
The above situation will only make dialogue and information more difficult for the left-wing alliance PFN, which finally fell apart due to personal and political differences as early as 2022 when it formed a bloc under the name Numes. Now there are five different parties that must accept the challenge, not to unite to defeat the extreme right, but to work together and promote a like-minded prime minister who will also help to achieve the needs of each party.
This, then, means not only uncertainty but also instability, which in the eyes of the international community represents a stagnation on several key issues, such as military support for Ukraine, which Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly promised but now faces a clear “no”. Le Pen said her party would prevent Kiev from using long-range weapons provided by France and opposed sending French troops.
On the other hand is the weakening of Macron’s image, whose central bloc, despite losing about 100 representatives, managed to resist with 163 seats. Le Pen made it clear that her fight now will be to “win power through the presidency and not the parliament” in the 2027 elections, which means that the incumbent must avoid the downfall that led him to the current crisis.
In this sense, pressure is growing from the non-agrarian parties for the president to appoint a prime minister from this group, who, despite not yet announcing a candidate while internal negotiations continue, also claims to be ready to govern, a power that corresponds to Macron, although the National Assembly will later have the ability to veto him through a motion of censure.
The leader of the secessionist group France Insoumise (LFI), Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has not 100% ruled out this possibility either, although he promised that it would not be a problem. He said he still has candidates to put forward, such as the president of his parliamentary group Mathilde Panot.
Therefore, the new prime minister must be a figure who can obtain the support of more than half of the House of Representatives to ensure the ability to govern, a threshold of 289 seats, which is a far cry from the 182 seats achieved by the NFP (several independent left-wing parties can still increase their representation).
Likewise, the uncertainty over France’s prospects is heightened by the legislative elections, which are due in a year, with Macron having managed to avoid a coup d’etat in power but not yet triggering a political and social crisis, given recent results and the lack of unity among the main forces.
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