Negotiations at a stalemate: Does Netanyahu want a deal?

Screenwriter: Ashraf Ajram

Since Hamas accepted the US proposal, which was originally a prisoner exchange proposed by Israel, and abandoned the main condition of declaring the end of the war in the first stage of the implementation of the agreement and not linking it to the second stage of negotiations, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made a series of statements indicating that he did not care whether the negotiations would succeed or whether an agreement acceptable to both Hamas and Israel could be reached.
What worries Hamas most about Netanyahu’s statements is his repeated talk of his refusal to stop the war before achieving all the goals he has repeatedly stated: eliminating the Hamas movement, releasing Israeli detainees in Gaza, and preventing possible threats to the Gaza Strip in the future, even though there is almost unanimous agreement within Israel that these goals cannot be achieved through war and that the solution is political and has to do with the post-war arrangement of the situation in Gaza.
Netanyahu’s dilemma is that he is doing everything to protect his government at a time when he is threatened by Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who threaten to overthrow the government if Netanyahu ratifies the agreement, which from their point of view leads to the victory of Hamas and the declaration of Israel’s defeat. Although Netanyahu has received promises from the opposition, especially from the “future” and the “official camp”, i.e. Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz, that he will receive a safety net to prevent the collapse of his government, he does not want to risk relying on the opposition, which often wants to pass the agreement, but in the end does not pass it. The government will remain in office until the end of its term in 2026. He is actually at a loss, because the cost of rejecting the agreement will be very high. Not only is the government facing public opinion and a protest movement, which could collapse if the protests escalate and reach the point where the economic blow paralyzes life in Israel, but also the United States. President Joe Biden is counting heavily on a ceasefire and the release of detainees to improve his tattered image in American public opinion, and he will not allow Netanyahu to scupper that opportunity. Some expect that if Netanyahu thwarts U.S. efforts, Israel will be hit with sanctions on arms supplies, which would undermine its ability to continue fighting and respond to the possibility of a war in the north.
In fact, there are doubts in Israel about the possibility of Ben Gvir and Smotrich overthrowing the ruling coalition and whether they are interested in doing so. In fact, Ben Afir has benefited greatly from the escalation and even the overthrow of the government, and the polls have won him a large number of seats, while Smotrich’s party and even Likud have lost seats, in some polls it has exceeded ten seats. With such a large bloc, he can sacrifice the government, unless Netanyahu pleases him, for example by including him in the war council. But Smotrich lost his party in the next elections and often did not exceed the electoral threshold, so overthrowing the government is not in his interest, especially since his settlement plan, which includes the actual annexation of the West Bank by changing the laws regulating Israel’s relations with the West Bank, is rapidly advancing, so his departure from the government will lead to the cessation of the project.
Perhaps Netanyahu will succeed in convincing his partners that he does not intend to stop the war, that he is seeking to release the first group of Israeli detainees, which includes women, the elderly and humanitarian cases, in exchange for a period of ceasefire of 42 days or more, after which he can disrupt the negotiations for some reason, and then the war resumes again. In this case, Ben Gvir and Smotrich can coexist, provided that Netanyahu commits to resuming the war, and this is possible because the text of the agreement talks about a ceasefire of 42 days, provided that the second stage of negotiations begins with the release of all Israeli detainees, the complete cessation of the war, the withdrawal of the army from the occupation of all areas of the Gaza Strip, and then, in the third stage, the process of rebuilding the Gaza Strip begins. The draft agreement provides that the ceasefire will continue as long as the negotiations continue, and this is where Netanyahu can manipulate, prevent negotiations, and start a war.
In practice, Netanyahu can satisfy the United States by implementing the first phase, and the success of the implementation of the second phase of negotiations becomes a gamble for everyone, especially the mediators, which Netanyahu is trying hard to avoid. This scenario is very realistic. But Netanyahu is still playing with time, and no one knows how he will act in the end. In any case, Netanyahu sent the head of Mossad to Qatar to meet with the Qatari Foreign Minister and the Director of the CIA C. Any. Any”. At the same time, Shin Bet head Ronan Bar was sent to Cairo to convene an Egyptian-Israeli-American meeting, which included the US intelligence agency and the Egyptian intelligence agency, to discuss the exchange agreement and the operation of the Rafah crossing. After these meetings and their results, Netanyahu’s direction will become clear.