Elections in the United States, France, Britain and Iran… War and settlement issues – Arab Web

Four elections in four countries, France, Britain, the United States and Iran, have brought about a dramatic shift in the political balance within these countries, with repercussions on the international stage and the beginning of wars and crises in several regions of the world.
The question is no longer why Democratic US President Joe Biden behaves so selfishly and insists on leading his party’s list in next November’s election. Since the night of the debate with former President Donald Trump on June 27 last year, the result was almost known in advance?
The question is, why did former President Obama, Clinton and other Democratic elders allow things to develop to this point, instead of trying to convince Biden to make way for another Democratic candidate a year ago? Maybe they tried, but the president was not convinced by the idea and insisted that he was physically and mentally capable of fulfilling the duties of the presidency for the next four years. Obama’s tweet
Polls show Trump leading in states Biden must win to remain in the White House, such as Virginia, Minnesota and New Mexico. This reality has so far prompted two Democratic representatives and Democratic Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Mark Warner to call on Biden to withdraw immediately before it is too late. Funds from major donors are seen as a decisive factor in Biden’s fight, and they are watching closely and are increasingly skeptical of the incumbent president’s abilities.
Anyone who knows Biden knows that he is stubborn and still insists that he is the only one capable of defeating Trump and saving American democracy. Similar to Trump’s own stubbornness!
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French President Emmanuel Macron emotionally decided on June 9 to call early legislative elections in response to the crushing defeat of his centrist Ennahda party in the European Parliament elections and the overwhelming victories of the far-right National Unity Party and the New Popular Front, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the former leader of the Trotskyist left-wing Pride of France party.

The results of the French legislative elections show that the left-wing coalition is leading the election, the presidential coalition is in second place, and the far-right coalition is in third place. No coalition can achieve an absolute majority.

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In Britain, male and female voters have given Keir Starmer’s Labour a mandate that the party also lacked when it was led by Tony Blair in the 1990s. But the mess left by populist Conservative rule led by David Cameron since leaving the European Union four years ago, through Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and finally banker Rishi Sunak, is being untangled, leaving Britain in its worst economic shape since the 1940s.
The British people chose Labour not because they believed Starmer had a magic wand, but as punishment for years of Conservative rule, which had set Britain back many years. A party that was ravaged by divisions and scandals, right down to the deportation of refugees to Rwanda, and the solutions proposed by former Home Secretary Sula Braverman were full of racism… The result was an unprecedented defeat. This is an unparalleled victory for the workers who founded the Conservative Party at the beginning of the last century since its founding in 1834.
Conservative rule has increased the proportion of British men and women who distrust political elites to 45%. Starmer does not have the luxury of time. He must achieve something quickly and be different from the previous regime, otherwise it will not be long before he too starts complaining.
Given the Labour mandate today, there is no reason not to act to reform the economy, immigration and foreign policy that have been undermined by conservative populism and, most importantly, to take a stance that is not based on escaping the war in Gaza. From Brexit to the coronavirus pandemic to the Russia-Ukraine war, all of these events have contributed to slower economic growth and increased poverty, and left 7.5 million people waiting for treatment in the UK government-funded National Health Service. In recent years, doctors and workers in other health and service sectors have seen record numbers of strikes.
Can Starmer solve this problem? It is difficult to find the answer.
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Also striking was the victory of the reformist candidate for the Iranian presidency, Masoud Pezeshkian, over the conservative candidate, Saeed Jalili, which represented the restoration of internal balance in the face of a hardline Shura Council (parliament) and austerity policies. The conservatives’ control over all state institutions (Guardian Council, Assembly of Experts and Judiciary); besides the victory of reformist symbols meant the possibility of reopening the door to the West and resuming indirect nuclear negotiations.
Cardiac surgeon Pezeshkian believes that the way to restore people’s confidence in the regime is to revive the economy, which cannot be achieved without lifting US sanctions, and the way to achieve this goal is to reach an agreement and restore the economy. An agreement with Western powers in 2015 or new negotiations will be held.
In addition, Pezeshkian spoke about how to strengthen the role of women in society and actively respond to the demands of female protesters and demonstrators who took to the streets in 2022 after the death of Mahsa Amini in the police station, who arrested her for not complying with the Constitution’s strict provisions on wearing a headscarf.
The election of Pezeshkian, who is backed by former president and reformist Mohammad Khatami, centrist Hassan Rouhani and former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif (his campaign adviser), signals a new approach by Iran in the face of Western pressure. Preparing for a phase in which Trump could return to the White House, the priority is to strengthen Iran’s internal front and signal to the outside world its intention to reach a deal, not a conflict.
The Iranian regime was most concerned about the low participation in the Shura Council elections in March (41%) and in the first round of the presidential elections on June 28 (40%), the last figures being the lowest since the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979. In this sense, the regime succeeded in attracting a section of reformists, undecided people, and perhaps conservatives themselves to vote for Bezhashkian, thus increasing the turnout to around 50%.
Although Khamenei has the final say on foreign policy, Iran’s president, who is considered the regime’s second-in-command, retains influence in decision-making and the management of state affairs.
For Pezeshkian, his election sends two calming messages at home and abroad, at a time when tensions in the region are high over Israel’s ongoing war on Gaza, its expansion into Lebanon and its transformation into a regional power, a conflict that Tehran may not be immune to and could bring it into direct confrontation with the United States.
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We are facing a world that will inevitably change as a result of this electoral list, just as in the two world wars in Ukraine and on the Gaza territory, can the world afford a new war, or will the results of these elections become a prelude to a new settlement?

Sami Saab
Opportunity 180