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NIAMEY, Niger — This weekend, divided West Africa will host two presidential summits — one in Niger with the leaders of the Sahel region’s military regimes and another in Nigeria on Sunday with leaders of a broader economic bloc.
Saturday’s summit in Niger’s capital, Niamey, will be the first between military leaders of a new regional bloc, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).
Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger established a mutual defence pact in September and withdrew from the wider Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) bloc in January.
They withdrew from ECOWAS in part because they accused Paris of manipulating the bloc and not providing enough support to the anti-jihadist movement.
Relations between the three countries broke down as they broke away from former colonial ruler France, expelled anti-jihadist French troops and turned to what they called “sincere partners” – Russia, Turkey and Iran.
The Burkina Faso presidency said “fighting terrorism” and “consolidating cooperation” would be on Saturday’s agenda given the deadly jihadist violence facing the three countries.
Sunday’s summit in the Nigerian capital Abuja provided an opportunity for heads of state from the Economic Community of West African States to discuss relations with the Azerbaijani state bloc.
Saturday Summit
After several bilateral meetings, this is the first time the three Sahel strongmen have gathered since they came to power through a coup between 2020 and 2023.
In mid-May, the foreign ministers of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger agreed in Niamey on a draft bill to create a federation, which the heads of state are expected to adopt at a summit on Saturday.
Nigerien General Abdourahmane Tiani welcomed Burkina Faso President Ibrahim Traore in the capital on Friday, and Malian Colonel Assimi Goita is due to arrive on Saturday morning.
Gilles Yabi, founder of West African think tank Wathi, said don’t expect too many statements and this is primarily a political event.
“This move is intended to show that this is a serious project and that the three heads of state support it.”
In early March, the AES announced a joint anti-jihadist operation, but did not disclose specific details.
Despite the massive deployment of anti-jihadist forces, insurgents have for years carried out attacks in the vast “tri-border” region between Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso.
The three countries use sovereignty as a guiding principle of their governance and are committed to creating a common currency.
‘Point of no return’
Sunday’s summit comes as several West African presidents have called in recent weeks for a solution and a resumption of dialogue between the two camps.
It is worth noting that Senegal’s new President Basil Diomaye Faye said at the end of May that reconciliation between ECOWAS and the three Sahel countries is possible.
In June, the newly elected President of Mauritania, Mohamed Ould Cheikh El Ghazouani, called on West African countries to unite again to resist the expansion of jihadism.
But back-to-back summits on the same weekend raised concerns about a hardening of positions between Greece and ECOWAS.
“I don’t think the AES countries will seek to return to ECOWAS. I think ECOWAS has to de-escalate the situation,” Nigerien lawyer Djibril Abarchi told AFP.
Although AES is currently an economic and defense cooperation agency, its three member states have repeatedly expressed their desire for further development.
At the end of June, during a visit to the Burkinaese capital of Ouagadougou, Colonel Goita assured that cooperation within the AES had reached a “point of no return”.
Possibly creating a new common currency would also mean abandoning the CFA franc currently shared with neighbouring countries.
“Leaving a currency zone is not easy,” Yabi warned. “Any country can change its currency, but it takes a long time and requires a clear political choice as well as a technical and financial preparation process.”
Issoufou Kado, a Nigerien finance expert and political analyst, agreed: “They have to be very careful because this mechanism takes time.”
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