Macron strives to stop Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally : NPR

PARIS — Voting is underway in mainland France on Sunday in a crucial runoff election that could deliver a historic victory for Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally and its inward-looking, anti-immigrant vision, or result in a hung parliament and political deadlock.

On June 9, French President Emmanuel Macron took a huge risk by dissolving parliament and announcing new elections after the centrist parties suffered a crushing defeat in the European elections.

A snap election in the nuclear-armed state would have implications for the war in Ukraine, global diplomacy and Europe’s economic stability, and would almost certainly undermine Macron’s remaining three years in office.

In the first round of elections held on June 30, the National Rally, an anti-immigrant nationalist party led by Marine Le Pen, achieved its biggest victory ever.

With just over 49 million people registered to vote, the outcome of the election will determine which party controls the 577-seat National Assembly, France’s influential lower house, and who will become prime minister. If Macron’s centrist majority falls further, he will be forced to share power with parties that oppose most of his pro-business, pro-European Union policies.

Voters at Paris polling stations were well aware that this move would have far-reaching consequences for France and the world.

“Individual freedom, tolerance and respect for others are what matters most these days,” said Thomas Bertrand, a 45-year-old voter who works in advertising.

Racism and anti-Semitism, as well as Russian cyberattacks, marred the campaign, with more than 50 candidates reporting physical attacks – extremely rare in France. The government deployed 30,000 police officers on voting day.

The heightened tensions come as France is celebrating a very special summer: Paris is set to host an ambitious Olympic Games, the national football team has reached the semifinals of the 2024 European Championships and the Tour de France is being carried across the country with the Olympic torch.

France’s Interior Ministry said turnout was 26.63 percent as of noon local time, slightly higher than the 25.90 percent at the same point in the first round of elections last Sunday.

In the first round of elections, turnout was nearly 67%, the highest level since 1997, ending nearly three decades of growing voter apathy towards legislative elections and, for a growing number of French people, towards politics in general.

Macron voted in the seaside resort of La Touquet with his wife Brigitte. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal voted earlier in the Paris suburb of Vanves.

Le Pen did not vote because her northern French constituency did not hold a second round of voting after she won a seat outright last week. Across France, 76 other candidates won seats in the first round, including 39 from her National Rally and 32 from the left-wing New Popular Front coalition. Two candidates from Macron’s centrist list also won seats in the first round.

The polls in mainland France and Corsica close at 8 pm (18:00 GMT) on Sunday. Preliminary polls are expected to be released on Sunday evening, with official preliminary results expected on Sunday night and Monday morning.

Voters living in the Americas and in the French overseas territories of St. Pierre and Miquelon, St. Barthelemy, St. Martin, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guyana and French Polynesia went to the polls on Saturday.

If the National Rally wins an outright majority and its 28-year-old leader, Jordan Bardella, becomes prime minister, the election could give France its first far-right government since the Nazi occupation in World War II. The party topped the first round of voting last week, followed by a coalition of the center-left, far-left and Green parties and Macron’s centrist coalition.

Pierre Lubin, a 45-year-old business manager, worries whether the election will produce an effective government.

“That worries us,” Rubin said. “Is this going to be a technocratic government or is it going to be a coalition of (various) political forces?”

The outcome remains highly uncertain. Polls between the two rounds show the National Rally could win a majority in the 577-seat National Assembly, but fall short of the 289 needed for a majority. It would still make history if a party with a historic connection to xenophobia, that downplays the Holocaust and has long been seen as a pariah, becomes France’s largest political force.

If he wins a majority, Macron would be forced to share power with a prime minister with whom he disagrees deeply with the president’s domestic and foreign policies, an awkward situation known in France as “cohabitation.”

Another possibility is that no single party wins a majority, resulting in a hung parliament, which could prompt Macron to negotiate a coalition with the center-left or form a technocratic government with no political leanings.

Macron’s centrist bloc will be forced to share power regardless of the outcome. Many of his coalition candidates lost or dropped out in the first round, meaning it does not have enough candidates to come close to the majority he won when he was first elected president in 2017, or in the 2022 legislative elections.

Both events are unprecedented for modern France and make it harder for the EU’s second-largest economy to make bold decisions about arming Ukraine, reforming labor laws or reducing its massive deficit. Financial markets have been on edge since Macron surprised even his closest allies by calling early elections in June after his National Rally party won a majority of seats in France in European parliamentary elections.

Whatever happens, Macron has said he will not step down and will remain president until the end of his term in 2027.

The National Rally has connected with many French voters, especially in small towns and rural areas, who are frustrated by low pay and a political leadership in Paris that is seen as elitist and indifferent to the daily struggles of workers, often blaming France’s problems on immigrants, and has built up broad and deep support over the past decade.

Le Pen has softened many of the party’s positions — she no longer calls for withdrawal from NATO and the European Union — to make it more electable. But the party’s core far-right values ​​remain. It wants a referendum on whether being born in France is enough for citizenship, to limit the rights of dual nationals and to give police more freedom to use firearms.

With the outcome of this high-stakes election uncertain, legal expert Valerie Dodman, 55, said she was pessimistic about France’s future.

“No matter what happens, I think this election is going to be unsatisfactory on all sides,” Dodman said.