Le Pen’s rise shows the extent of polarization

“We’re scared of what’s going to happen next,” Hamel, 34, told CNBC ahead of the final round of voting in France’s snap election this weekend.

French society is closely watching the results of the election to see whether the nationalist, anti-immigrant National Rally (RN) can build on its victory in the first round of voting, or whether centrist and left-wing parties can prevent it from entering government.

“It’s a very, very tense period. It’s the first time the far right has won in the first round (of voting). So it’s a big deal,” added Amer, a therapist who said she would vote for the left-wing New Popular Front.

“We are so anxious, we are trying to get everyone to vote, trying to tell those who don’t vote to vote, and trying to convince those who voted for the far right that they are not a good answer (to France’s problems).”

France’s far-right Rassemblement Nationale Revolutionaire rejects the label of “extremists,” saying it defends French values, culture and civil rights at a time when many are tired of the French political establishment led by President Emmanuel Macron since 2017.

But opponents and critics of the RN warn that France would be on the brink of political disaster if a party openly opposed to immigration, nationalism and Euroscepticism wins a majority in this early election. Macron called His party suffered a heavy defeat to the far right in June’s European Parliament elections. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said French voters now had a “moral responsibility” to halt the party’s advance.

For young left-wing voters like Hamel, the RN’s surge in the polls and the fact that it won the most votes in the first round of last weekend’s election are worrying developments that have left them concerned about France’s social cohesion.

“I’m worried about the future of this country. I feel like it’s going to get worse and worse,” said Amer, who would only give her first name because of the sensitivity of the situation. “It’s going to be like a civil war. I hope it doesn’t get to that point, but people are going to stop socializing and be afraid of each other. It’s very scary.”

Opinion polls ahead of Sunday’s final round of voting showed the snap election highlighted the country’s political polarization, leaving the country deeply divided.

The results of the first round of elections showed that the far-right party “National Front” won 33% of the votes, the left-wing party “New Popular Front” won 28% of the votes, and the pro-Macron party alliance “Solidarity” won 20% of the votes.

Since the results of the first round of elections were announced, the center-right and left-wing parties have made every effort to prevent the National Revolutionary Union from advancing in the second round of elections and to prevent the party from obtaining a majority in parliament at all costs. The centrist and left-wing parties, united in the so-called “Republican Front”, withdrew their candidates in many constituencies where their candidates had a better chance of defeating the National Revolutionary Union.

By offering voters a starker choice and fewer options, the anti-far-right front hopes voters will vote for non-RN candidates. Whether the move will work remains to be seen, with analysts noting that French voters may not like being told how to vote or who to vote for.

The final result on Sunday night — the outcome of a snap election that Macron did not have to announce — will show how difficult it will be to reach consensus in national politics and government in the future.

The country’s reaction to the election results is also uncertain. France is no stranger to popular unrest, given the widespread presence of the “yellow vests” anti-government movement in recent years and street protests since the first round of voting on June 30.

France’s Interior Ministry appears to be bracing for more trouble after Sunday’s polls. Around 30,000 police officers were reportedly preparing to be deployed across France on Sunday evening There are fears of violence after the vote, with Interior Minister Gerard Darmanin reportedly saying 5,000 police officers would be on duty in and around Paris to “make sure that the far right and the far left do not take advantage of this situation to create chaos.”

French police have sometimes been accused of using heavy-handed tactics against demonstrators during previous periods of unrest. In 2019, water cannon and tear gas were fired at “yellow vest” protesters.

A member of the French gendarmerie, the military force responsible for law enforcement and public order, told CNBC that the “French election was a mess” and that “the French people have rarely been so divided.”

“People’s opinions are increasingly divided and you can feel it in your daily life,” the military police officer, who requested anonymity because of the nature of his job, told CNBC.

The police officer, a father of three in his 40s and a right-wing voter, said the polarisation of French society was “very worrying, but unfortunately normal given the ‘diversity’ of our society”.

“More and more people with different values ​​and educational backgrounds are forced to coexist, which is obviously not working,” said the police officer, who works in Bordeaux, southwestern France.

“I worry about the future of this country because we are too generous to people who are not willing to integrate and contribute to society, and this situation cannot continue.”

The officer said he expected civil unrest after the vote, regardless of which party received the most votes.

“No matter who is elected, there will be civil unrest. This is France and people have the right to speak their mind.”

Political experts agree that the current tense atmosphere in French politics and the confrontation between major voter groups are factors that could trigger further public unrest.

“You have all the signs of a very polarized political situation here, and of course that will also affect civil society as a whole,” Philippe Marlière, professor of French and European politics at University College London, told CNBC.

“If only 33-34% of people vote for the far right, it means the rest are wary of it or completely against it, so this will affect every level of politics – institutional politics, party politics, the National Assembly, and even society. You will see a very polarised society, and young people, minorities, women, especially feminists, will be very worried,” he said.

Malie did not rule out violence in the streets if a far-right party were elected to government. “We are not there yet. But if there are policies that are very unpopular, very confrontational and very hostile to certain groups, then there will be large demonstrations that lead to riots in the streets,” he said.

Like other far-right parties in Europe, the National Rally has tapped into voters’ insecurities about crime, immigration, national identity and economic insecurity. Tells voters he will “restore order,” control immigration, solve crime But he and party leader Marine Le Pen have backed off on some of their more strident promises and rhetoric, such as changing their stance on France’s withdrawal from NATO and moderating the party’s traditional pro-Russian stance.

Badella said he still supported sending weapons to Ukraine but not the deployment of ground troops, which Macron considered a possibility.

Even if the National Alliance enters government, it is uncertain how many of the party’s policies will be implemented. Ahead of the second round of voting, the Republican Front also seemed confident that its strategy of undermining the National Alliance’s vote share was working.

Ifop poll Results from the July 3 election suggest that voters may be inclined to support the RN candidate over the RN candidate if a centrist or left-wing candidate supporting Macron appears on Sunday’s ballot. However, if the choice is between far-left and far-right candidates, the picture is more nuanced, showing a split in the vote.

Analysts predict that although the National Party is unlikely to win an absolute majority of 289 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, it is still likely to win the most votes, resulting in a hung parliament, which would cause headaches for Macron and bring uncertainty to France’s political and economic prospects.

“The political landscape is in disarray and it’s actually not functioning anymore, at least according to the old rules,” Mathieu Doiret, an analyst at Ipsos, told CNBC on Thursday.

“We are in a situation that is so far away from our traditions and political habits that it is difficult for every stakeholder to adapt to this new situation.”