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Somalia’s President HSM announced the defeat of the Al-Shabaab in Somalia by force. In order to overcome the complex problems of civil war, state fragility and underdevelopment, the Somali people supported adventurous political changes to establish a government that promotes freedom, justice, peace and prosperity in Somalia. For example, the Islamic movement gained popular support to end the brutal rule of warlords and the military occupation of Ethiopia and establish a new government.
But Al-Shabaab, a splinter group from the Islamist movement, lost public support after it transformed into an Al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist group and began committing heinous atrocities against Somalis. Al-Shabaab not only killed and maimed thousands of innocent Somalis and destroyed private property, but also hindered economic development and the delivery of humanitarian aid, forcing millions of Somalis into internally displaced persons camps and migration (Talib) to survive. South-central Somalia became a safe haven for Al-Shabaab.
Sadly, under the leadership of President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo (2017-2022), Al-Shabaab seized power, control and resources from the federal government, invaded Ethiopia, and provided support to international terrorist organizations. United Nations (UN), US Government (USG), European Union (EU) and African Union (AU) – Aware of the growing strength and threat of Al-Shabaab and the collusion between the Federal Government and Al-Shabaab, but decided to cover up the truth to the detriment of the Somali people.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamed (HSM), who was elected for the second time on May 15, 2022, has vowed to eliminate Al-Shabaab from Somalia by force. In fact, liberating Somalia from the brutal control of Al-Shabaab is the first of the six pillars of the Federal Government Plan approved by the People’s House of the Federal Parliament.
swear”No negotiations with Al-Shabaab” On July 19, HSM President wrote an article titled “Somalia’s president seeks help in fighting African terror groups” On October 15, another public article was published, titled “There is no turning back: We must eliminate Al-Shabaab once and for all” was reported by the international media. He travelled domestically and abroad to mobilise support. He asked the presidents of the federal states to fulfil their respective responsibilities.
President HSM’s statement set the stage for a brutal and violent confrontation between Al-Shabaab and the federal government. Al-Shabaab wasted no time and began launching violent attacks on government forces and civilians to gain the upper hand.
The President’s statement was based on three elements— Defeating Al-Shabaab, Combatting al-Shabaab’s distortion of the Islamic faith, and Cutting off al-Shabaab’s sources of income. While implementation of the first element is critical, the second element represents groundbreaking progress in the fight against radicalism, terrorism, and opposition to the Westphalian state in Somalia. Implementation of the third element requires a cautious approach given Somalia’s unique financial situation. Somalia’s financial system is vulnerable to foreign accusations and harm.
President HSM rightly pointed out that the decisive defeat of Al-Shabaab is essential to accelerate the long-delayed process of nation-building and achieve The 17 goals of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable DevelopmentHowever, research and assessments of the performance of Somali elites and foreign influence on Somali politics suggest that Unable to defeat al-Shabaab militarily And the necessity Negotiations with Al-Shabaab Saving Somalia from “This war is intractable and there is no end in sight.” Somalia’s international partners are likely to accept the findings of research and evaluations conducted by its scholars.
The International Crisis Group (ICG), a well-known international organization, proposed negotiations with the Youth Party. On June 21, 2022, the ICG released a 46-page report entitled “Consider political engagement with Al-Shabaab in Somalia.”
The report’s conclusions are based on the following: the devastation caused by Somalia’s 15-year war with al-Shabaab; the failure of 15 years of attempts by the federal government, the federal military coalition, and international partners to defeat al-Shabaab militarily; the gradual decline of international support; al-Shabaab’s effectiveness, adaptability, resilience to counterinsurgency campaigns and setbacks, and deep-rootedness in Somali society, especially in south-central Somalia, over the past 15 years; and the expected withdrawal of AU forces in 2024. The report states:Even the new leadership cannot defeat al-Shabaab by force alone”
The report does not deny the challenges of dialogue with al-Shabaab, but it insists that the alternative is to engage in an endless war with al-Shabaab. It believes that given the ineffectiveness of the federal government security forces over the past 15 years, achieving the HSM President’s goals is difficult. Defeating Al-Shabaab Seems almost impossible. Finally, the report notes that Somalia’s President HSM is committed to peace in Somalia, which raises the question: “Is this peace inclusive and extends to al-Shabaab?“‘ah?’
President HSM’s statement is contrary to the U.S. government’s long-standing counterinsurgency strategy based on disruption, deterioration, and containment.No negotiations with Al-Shabaab” faces the challenge of overcoming suspicion and intrigue from locals and foreigners alike.
Other obstacles to successful implementation of the HSM Presidential Declaration These include unresolved political, security and economic issues left by President Farmajo’s previous administration; the inability of federal and state institutions to develop and manage a strategy to defeat Al-Shabaab in a short period of time; and uncertainty about the support needed for civilians to participate in “Ma’awisleey,” meaning “Civilian clothing Sarong“In the war against al-Shabaab; the chaos of US counter-terrorism policy; the lack of patriotism, morality and civic responsibility among the Somali elite, accused”Put your energy into the argument power and resources, while the fight against Al-Shabaab has become a secondary issue (ICG)“State presidents have ignored or undermined the efforts of the federal government; clan rivalries; and the uncertain fate of Somali troops in Eritrea. By extending the arms embargo on Somalia, the UN Security Council expresses its contempt and low opinion of the entire Somali nation.
So far, the presidents of the member states of Somalia are on vacation, acting as bystanders and spoilers of the anti-Al-Shabaab campaign. The silence of Somalia’s international partners in supporting the war against Al-Shabaab further confirms the claim of Al-Shabaab’s invincibility. Defeating Al-Shabaab militarily will help avoid famine and climate change disasters in Somalia.
To prevent the continued attacks and threats to liberated areas in Hirshabelle, Galmudug or other regions, the entire country must be placed on a war footing. The Federal Government, Federal State and Banadir State must mobilize citizens to be vigilant against violent attacks by Al-Shabaab without restricting their freedoms and movements. Somalis’ efforts should be swiftly supported by international partners to provide protection, administration and stabilization to areas liberated from Al-Shabaab.
The implementation of the HSM Presidential Declaration requires synchronized efforts by the Federal Government, the Federal Military Alliance, international partners and Somalis at all levels, without sacrificing other pillars of the Federal Government’s plan. The fight against Al-Shabaab tests the symbiotic working relationship between the Federal Government and the State Governments, respect for Articles 47, 87(1) and 90(a,b) of the Interim Constitution, and recognition of the existential threat Al-Shabaab poses to Somalia.
The momentum in the fight against Al-Shabaab should not weaken. The leaders of the federal member states of Somalia and Somalia’s international partners must show the will and determination to liberate Somalia from the shackles of Al-Shabaab by force as soon as possible. Otherwise, Somalia will face a long-term disaster.
Dr. Mohammed M. Skeel
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