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The World by Alan Posener
Source: Claudius Pflug
Donald Trump promised immediate peace in Ukraine if he was re-elected to the White House. What he did not mention was the price he was willing to pay for it. His concessions went far beyond Kiev’s refusal to join NATO.
noDonald Trump announced during a televised debate with Joe Biden that he would create peace in Ukraine before his inauguration. The White House favorite did not reveal how. But back in April, Trump’s former national security adviser and then-chief of staff Peace Plan forward.
All in One Reuters interview Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz said they presented their plan to Trump and received “delightful feedback.” The core of the plan goes something like this: “We’re telling the Ukrainians, you have to come to the table, and if you don’t, then American help is going to dry up,” Kellogg said. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin will be told, “If you don’t negotiate, we’re going to give the Ukrainians everything they need to kill you on the battlefield.”
As a result of the peace talks, Trump advisers envision a ceasefire and the establishment of a demilitarized zone; Ukraine abandons NATO membership and violently liberates Russian-occupied territories.
However, peaceful reunification should still be the goal of Ukrainian diplomacy, and this can be bilateral relations rather than joining NATO. Guarantee Agreement With the U.S., Russia would be allowed to export energy again, but would be taxed to finance Ukraine’s reconstruction.
Military resources are slowly being depleted
One can reject or support a return to the status quo ante before the Russian attack; but this depends on whether Putin takes the threat of “arming Ukraine” seriously, if he does not agree. But he will not. The authors of the plan estimate that such a war will slowly but surely drain US military resources.
The United States sent 2,000 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, and it took 13 years to fill the gap. Ukraine fired as many 150mm grenades in 48 hours as the United States produces in a month. Even modern weapon systems like these HIMARS missile It will slowly become scarce. But if China attacks Taiwan, the United States will need it.
In short: Kellogg and Fitts’ proposal is based on America’s weakness in weapons production. Putin may consider Trump’s threats as mere bluster. If China offers Russia assistance – as it already does – in targeted provocations against Taiwan, Trump may lose his nerve and stop aid to Ukraine, even without a ceasefire guarantee. If in doubt, Taiwanese microchips are more important to him than Ukrainian wheat. Putin knows this.
Trump’s plan is not a peace plan, it is a surrender plan. Olaf Scholz Still refusing to buy weapons from EU funds that could be used to help the Baltic states and Poland, which are directly threatened by Russia. It seems that he is already expecting a turning point from Trump. How long do the Greens and the Liberal Democrats want to see him do this?
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