If Biden steps down, who could replace him as the Democratic nominee?

follow Poor performance During Thursday night’s presidential debate, President Biden Facing a large number of calls From Democratic experts and strategists to Step aside and make way for another Democratic candidate, as there are real doubts about his ability to defeat former President Donald Trump in November.

Biden’s debate was filled with non sequiturs, rhetorical errors, off-topic digressions, and long pauses to collect his thoughts. He spoke in a low voice and with a hoarse throat—his The assistant said he had a cold.Overall, his performance will only add to the existing Concerned about his age and Ability to perform duties.

To be clear, Trump’s performance was terrible, too; full of outright lies and incoherent rhetoric. He made it clear once again that he poses a grave threat to American democracy — which is why some Democrats are saying Biden must step down and allow a stronger candidate to lead the party in November.

Replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee will be difficult, but not impossible, because my colleagues Christian Paz wroteIt would require Biden himself to direct delegates at this summer’s convention to vote for someone else and to hand over his campaign funds. No party official could force him to step down.

Biden on Friday Indicated He has said he has no intention of dropping out and will continue to participate in the second debate in September. But if Biden changes his mind, there is a slate of potential candidates to replace him — most notably Vice President Kamala Harris.

Voters have come to accept that Harris is one step away from becoming president. In a September poll, just over a third of voters said they would CBS News/YouGov Polls show they believe Biden will complete his second term.

She performed well against other Democratic presidential candidates. Morning Consult/Politico June Poll The survey of registered voters found that 21% wanted her to be the nominee if Biden didn’t run — more than any other candidate.

She is the easiest person to replace because she can also take over Biden’s campaign. Unlike other candidates who might replace Biden, she can start using Biden’s campaign funds immediately because she is already a presidential candidate. Otherwise, Biden would have to transfer his funds to the Democratic National Committee, which would then allocate them to another candidate.

The Biden campaign has also tried to boost Harris’ profile, sending her around the country to speak about abortion rights, a key issue that has powered Democratic victories in states from North Carolina to Kansas since the Supreme Court struck down abortion rights law. Roe v. Wade. And since then Trump’s criminal convictionShe has proven Ability to launch an attackdrawing on her experience as a former San Francisco District Attorney and California Attorney General.

However, these facts may not be enough to overcome the fact that Harris is unpopular, even relative to her former vice president.according to FiveThirtyEight poll average.This is better than Biden’s Opposition rate: 56% — But he also Historically unpopularHarris would run the same as Biden. In addition, the Morning Consult/Politico poll found that only a third of voters and three-fifths of Democrats think she has a chance of winning the Democratic presidential nomination.

That’s partly because the White House failed to give her exposure that could have boosted those numbers during the first half of Biden’s presidency, instead giving her a job that included the ever-thorny issue of immigration. Tensions between her office and the White House.

Harris, the first woman, first Black woman and first South Asian American vice president, has also come under attack. Sexist and racistas the former White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain Already noticed.

Replacing Biden with Harris, therefore, would require the Democratic establishment to fully support her in a way they have not yet done.

If not Harris, Biden’s successor could also come from the 2028 talent pool that Democrats have been eyeing: California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker.

However, when asked if they would like to intervene, they have so far refused – which is to be expected, as they are all strong alternatives to Biden.

In the Morning Consult/Politico poll, Newsom and Buttigieg are the second favorites to be the Democratic presidential candidate, behind Harris at 10%. Whitmer is third at 4%. (Pritzker was not included in the poll.) Newsom, Whitmer and Pritzker also The state has a high approval rating.

Newsom Recent debates His work with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has raised his national profile. His record includes further protecting reproductive rights in California, Cleaning up homeless campsgradually phase out Gas vehicles, Expanding health care for undocumented immigrantsapply Moratorium on executionsformulate Police ReformEtc. But his governorship was not without its challenges: he faced Multiple recall activitiesthe state faces a multibillion-dollar deficit this year and needs to make significant budget cuts.

Whitmer led the Democratic Party to win majorities in both chambers of the Michigan Legislature in the midterm elections. In the years since, she has been committed to Strengthening abortion rights, Expanding LGBTQ rightsimplementation Tighter gun safety measurestake Positive climate action, Implement free universal preschool educationAnd like “Right to Work” Laws The policy, which hurts union membership, was previously implemented by the Michigan Republican Party.

Pritzker, with his multibillion-dollar fortune, may have a strategic advantage because he is less dependent on donors to finance his presidential campaign. He has balanced his state’s budget and has a progressive agenda that includes a $45 billion infrastructure plan, raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2025, expanding Medicaid coverage to undocumented seniors, and transitioning the state to 100% clean energy by 2050. His state will host the Democratic National Convention this summer.

Buttigieg performed well in the 2020 presidential race, finishing third behind Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT). As transportation secretary, he oversaw the implementation of the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill passed in 2021, which aims to Improving road safetyand solved Supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemicBut he also had a series of High-profile train derailment incidents and spread widely Flight delays and cancellationsdespite efforts since then Holding airlines accountable.

But the public is still largely unfamiliar with the party’s rising stars. With the election just months away, it may be too late to introduce them, even without the thorny logistics of the convention. But voters may also be happy to cast their ballots for someone who isn’t Biden or Trump: Previously, an average Democrat The poll results are significantly better than Even more intense than Biden versus Trump.