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The truth is, things aren’t going well for the baby boomers, at least according to America’s youngest voters.
Many people under 30 believe their elders have left them a more dangerous world with worse conditions and fewer opportunities.
These young voters are a more diverse group than older generations, and unlike older American voters, they also believe that politics would be better if there was more diversity.
They’ve faced challenges. They’ve been disrupted by the coronavirus: Young people who were in high school or college during the lockdown now say their education has been disrupted. Many also look back and describe growing up with more concern about gun violence than older generations.
Today, they overwhelmingly believe it’s harder to buy a home (current interest rates suggest they’re right), raise a family, get what they consider a good job (despite strong national employment numbers), or start a business—the kinds of undertakings that were available to previous generations.
But most remain optimistic about achieving the American Dream one day, and carving their own path along the way: Today, they use the word “creativity” to describe their generation, followed by words like “innovation” and “diversity”—all qualities that most believe will eventually help them change the world.
They also focus on different issues than their elders, focusing more on climate, abortion and promoting diversity.
Yet despite these concerns, or perhaps because of them, they don’t plan to vote as much as their elders did. They’re giving the election less thought now and fewer say they’ll definitely vote than their older counterparts.
Therefore, the extent to which they participate or do not participate in “24” may be the most direct way in which they shape the future of all of us.
About Diversity
Most voters under the age of thirty think politics would be better if it were more diverse: more minorities, more women in office, and (perhaps not surprisingly) more young people.
There are big differences when comparing these views with those of people over 65, among whom far fewer think political diversity would be better, and who grew up in a very different, less diverse America.
How a candidate’s age affects a campaign
Talking about younger voters creates a natural contrast to the ages of this year’s candidates, which for some of these younger voters marks an age gap of fifty years or more, and how that affects their views.
Half of those young voters believe the candidates — President Biden and former President Donald Trump — are being turned off by their respective ages.
Half of them said that none of the presidential candidates understand young people… and most importantly, when they feel that way, they are relatively less likely to vote.
The Big Question: Engagement
They have their criticisms and their questions, but will they show? The answer, at least judging by the intentions expressed here, is not as much as its predecessors.
In fact, only three-quarters of those who voted in 2020 say they will definitely vote again this time.
This is a higher turnover rate than other age groups.
Historically, younger voters don’t vote as much as older voters, so this isn’t something that’s unique to younger generations right now — it’s often about the stage of life people are in, being rooted in their community, developing voting habits, being involved, or just having more time to pay attention to politics as you get older.
Despite this, only one in five young people believe their generation has much of a say in the political process, even though at the same time many of them do not intend to vote.
Only a third are currently seriously considering a presidential run.
When asked why they don’t vote, responses included that it doesn’t appeal to them, they don’t have the time, or that the whole system sucks.
Young people are more disappointed with their choices in this profession than older groups.
But there is another difference here. Older voters vote whether they like the choice of candidates or not; they do so out of deep-seated habit, partisan loyalty or a sense of duty.
But for young voters, many of whom are unhappy with their choices, satisfaction with the candidates is more important. When they are unhappy with the candidates, they are less likely to participate.
Broader important themes
For voters under 30, the economy was an important factor in their vote, as it is for all voters, but they were also more likely to factor other issues into their calculations, such as abortion, climate, and race and diversity issues — all of which add up to a vote for Biden.
While turnout factors into its impact on Biden, his numbers today aren’t much different than they were in 2020. Currently, young Democrats are less likely to say they’re going to run than young Republicans.
On the other hand, the issues on which Trump performs well among older voters — crime, immigration — are relatively less important to young people.
(We should note that while they say diversity is a major issue, they voted for Mr. Biden, but a large portion of them still think he hasn’t done enough to promote diversity, so they are not entirely happy with the president.)
Economy, Opportunity, and the American Dream
For them, the perspective on the current economy seems to be about perceptions of opportunity, not just day-to-day finances.
When young people think they can achieve the American Dream (as most of them do, despite all the challenges they face), they are relatively more likely to say the current economy is good. When they don’t see achieving the dream, they say today’s economy is bad.
(The broader context is also highlighted: Young people remain optimistic, with most believing they can achieve the American Dream, and most voters over 65 think they’ve already achieved it; it’s actually the people in between, who are today in their prime working years, who are the most pessimistic about achieving it.)
Armas
Most said they worried about the potential for gun violence when they were in school, and older voters expressed much higher levels of concern looking back.
That appears to have influenced his stance on gun policy. Most people support stricter laws on gun sales, and support is even stronger among those who grew up worrying about gun violence.
Student Loans
They are big supporters of canceling student loan debt. (Biden has strong support from those who do.)
But is that in itself a motivating factor? That’s less clear. Overall, those who support are no more likely than others of the same age group to say they will run.
Gera
Despite protests on college campuses in recent months, for the broader under-30 group, the war between Israel and Hamas ranks behind the economy, abortion, immigration and a host of other factors.
However, their views on this are very different from those of older Americans, among whom relatively more are calling for an end to Israeli military operations.
climate
They were more likely to say climate change requires immediate action.
abortion
If Biden’s team wants to encourage turnout on the abortion issue, they may have some work to do:
Most young voters want abortion to be legal — as do most voters — but they are less likely than older Americans to think Biden would try to pass a national law legalizing abortion and more likely to say his elders are unsure what he would do.
They were also more likely to think Trump would do nothing or were unsure what he would do.
The CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted among 2,460 nationally representative U.S. adults from June 17-21, 2024. The survey oversampled adults ages 18 to 29, with a total of 743 adults in that age group. The sample for the final report is weighted for national adults by gender, age, race and education, using the margins of error from the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey and the 2020 presidential election. The margin of error for the total sample is ±2.8 points. The margin of error for the sample of adults ages 18 to 29 is ±5.2 points.
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Anthony Salvanto
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