An analysis of dry lands around the world suggests that vegetation patterns may be a precursor to future developments.

Society is increasingly aware that the Earth’s capacity to absorb and provide goods and services at the current rate is limited.1Historical reconstructions and contemporary events continue to remind us that changes in ecological regimes are often sudden rather than gradual. This reality motivates researchers to search for leading indicators of impending ecosystem change. et al..2 The report says significant progress has been made in our ability to predict the transition of dryland lands from self-organizing, self-sustaining and productive ecosystems to disordered and low-functioning states. Such transitions have important implications for our understanding of “desertification” – the change from aridity to a desert-like state.

Theoretical research suggests that patterns of vegetation patches may indicate how close a system is to abruptly shifting to desert-like conditions3,4,5However, empirical studies tend to show that the total vegetation cover, rather than its arrangement, often predicts the state of the system.4,5,6,7,8,9. The Executioner et al..2 They integrate these competing perspectives into a comprehensive view. They show how major environmental drivers, such as drought, affect vegetation cover and patchiness, and where self-organizing, stabilizing forces within vegetation may reside.