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Yangel Bin Laden
Experts from the National Center for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) said the upcoming June-September monsoon may be difficult to withstand, with the center predicting temperatures and rainfall to be slightly above normal.
This was a view shared at the 10th National Climate Outlook Forum in Thimphu yesterday.
The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) held on April 29 also mentioned that the Hindu Kush Himalaya region should prepare for the upcoming monsoon, with experts warning that rainfall will be high. The rainfall is expected to occur against the backdrop of an overall warming trend, with both minimum and maximum temperatures above normal.
NCHM uses data from 1996 to the previous year (2023) to calculate average temperature and rainfall, which is called “normal.” When the predicted annual temperature and rainfall are within 10% above normal, it is called “slightly above normal.” When the decline is within 10% of normal levels, it is considered “slightly below normal.”
NCHM official Ugyen Chophel said that due to Bhutan’s topography and geographical location, even normal or below-normal rainfall is never normal, making it vulnerable to natural disasters.
“While slightly above normal rainfall is worrying for some industries, it is a great benefit for agriculture and hydropower. This forecast is intended to prepare us as forecasts do not guarantee outcomes so we must always Stay vigilant, keep an eye out for the monsoon and check the forecast regularly.”
Last year’s National Climate Outlook predicted slightly below normal rainfall. The normal average cumulative rainfall from 1996 to 2022 is 691.1 millimeters (mm), while last year’s cumulative rainfall was 564.5 mm, confirming that the forecast is correct. However, the average temperature recorded in 2023 was 20.87 degrees Celsius, contradicting the national outlook, which predicted temperatures to be slightly above normal at 21.75 degrees Celsius.
“Although the country received slightly below normal rainfall last year, we also observed a number of extreme weather events that caused serious damage,” Ugyen Chopel said.
Some of last year’s extreme weather events included sustained heavy rainfall on June 16 that blocked roads between Thimphu and Phuntsholing, and flash floods on August 25 that damaged property and infrastructure in Wangdu, Punakha and Trongsa. damaged.
On July 13, 2023, flash floods also caused damage to property and infrastructure in Phuntsholing and Klephu districts.
Floods in Afghanistan have killed more than 300 people and destroyed thousands of homes in the region this year, and a heat wave last month broke temperature records, forcing schools to close, damaging crops and sparking forest fires, the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development said.
Ugyen Chophel said the outlook for climate drivers such as the Indian Ocean Dipole is positive, which means the early monsoon will bring rains. “Also, there is a possibility of La Nina in the second half of the Pacific southwest monsoon season, which will again bring rains to the country in the late monsoon period.”
The Pangrizampa Academy of Astrology’s (PCA) astrological climate outlook predicts storms and heavy rainfall in the country’s northern region, good agricultural production, no major natural disasters, and an increase in forest fires at the beginning and end of the year.
The 10th National Climate Outlook is prepared by the NCHM using data from national and international climate organizations including the PCA, World Meteorological Organization, SASCOF, ERA5 and the Japan Meteorological Agency. The team researched and compared all outlooks to compile a consistent seasonal outlook.
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