Economic outlook more negative | CBS

The CBS Business Cycle Tracker is a tool for monitoring the economic situation in the Netherlands. It provides an overview of the macroeconomic situation over the past month or quarter based on all data published by the CBS. However, this situation can still vary between different households, companies or regions.

Consumers remain negative, and producers are even more negative

Consumer confidence was unchanged in August from the previous month, but producer sentiment eased. Both consumer and producer confidence are below their long-term averages over the past 20 years.

Household consumption, exports and investment fall

Adjusted for price changes and shopping day patterns, household spending fell 0.7% in June 2024 from a year earlier. They spent more on services but less on goods.

The total volume of exported goods (adjusted for the number of working days) fell by 1.0% year-on-year in June 2024. Exports of machinery, food, beverages and tobacco, petroleum products and transport equipment fell in particular.

In June 2024, investment in tangible fixed assets fell by 10.3% year-on-year. This was mainly due to lower investment in buildings, infrastructure, aircraft, passenger cars and machinery. There were two fewer working days in June 2024 than in June 2023.

Manufacturing output fell nearly 5% in June

In June 2024, calendar-adjusted Dutch manufacturing output was 4.9% lower than in June 2023. Year-on-year output also contracted in the first 11 months. Adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, manufacturing output in June was 0.8% higher than in May.

Bankruptcies rise in July

Adjusted for court days, there were 24 more bankruptcies in July 2024 than in June. That’s a 6% increase. In the first seven months, the number of bankruptcies was about 43% higher than a year ago.

House prices rose nearly 11% in July

In July 2024, existing owner-occupied home prices were 10.6% higher on average than a year ago. This was the largest increase in nearly two years. Prices in July were 1.4% higher than in June.

Work hours increased, job openings decreased and unemployment rate remained unchanged

In the second quarter of 2023, seasonally adjusted working hours increased by 0.3% compared with the previous quarter. In the second quarter of 2024, employees and self-employed people worked a total of more than 3.7 billion hours.

In July 2024, the number of unemployed people aged 15 to 74 totaled 370,000, the same as the previous month. The unemployment rate was 3.6%, the same as in May and June.

At the end of the second quarter of 2024, there were 401,000 vacancies, nearly 10,000 fewer than in the previous quarter. The number of vacancies has fallen for two consecutive years, with only a slight increase in the first quarter of 2024.

In the first quarter of 2024, turnover of temporary employment and employment agencies increased by 2.9% year-on-year.

Economic growth in the second quarter of 2024 is 1.0%

According to preliminary estimates from Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 1.0% in the second quarter of 2024 compared with the previous quarter. The growth in the second quarter was mainly due to goods exports. Public consumption and investment also made a positive contribution. The increase in goods exports is also related to the growth in the manufacturing sector.