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Early autumn in Ukraine may The proportion of new bank deposits will decline Hryvnia and exchange rates deposit There will be no significant changes and will remain the same Up to 13% per year.at the same time Net Profit The deposit rate will remain at 5-6% per year until the end of the year.
This forecast of OBOZ.UA was published by banking market participants. According to their calculations, Average deposit interest rate in September Will:
- For 3 months. For up to 6 months – 10% per year;
- From 9 months to 12 months – 11-12% per year;
- 1 to 2.5 years – Average up to 12-13% per year.
At the same time, the transition period is likely to continue in September – Ukrainians will adapt to the new economic reality, especially inflation in the 5-7% range. “Thus, behavioral inertia is possible, and therefore, The number of new depositors increased by only 1%” said Dmitry Zamotaev, head of retail banking at Globus Bank.
At the same time, experts say that the average rate of return on foreign currency deposits will remain unchanged: the average annual interest rate on US dollar deposits will not exceed 1.5%, and the average annual interest rate on euro deposits will not exceed 1.3%. Hryvnia deposits will still be more profitable.
“Net profit on shortest hryvnia deposits (3 to 6 months) Almost three times the income from foreign currency deposits. This has significantly increased citizens’ interest in hryvnia deposits,” the banker said confidently.
At the same time, Zamotayev No risk of mass exodus Money from hryvnia deposits. According to bankers, as of mid-August, the ratio of hryvnia deposits to foreign currency deposits was 80% to 20%. That is, as experts emphasize, Hryvnia deposits dominate, a situation that is unlikely to change significantly in the next 3-4 months.
However, he did not rule out the possibility that the share of hryvnia deposits in September-October It may decrease by 3-5% Compared with August. He believes that there may be two main reasons:
- The deposit term plan expires, and there are fewer new depositors, resulting in a negative balance;
- Against the backdrop of a more pronounced inflationary impact, citizens are naturally concerned about the future of the hryvnia.
According to NBU estimates, Ukrainians who invested in hryvnia deposits and bonds (OVDP) did not lose a penny of their savings over the past year, OBOZ.UA reports. The fact is that the interest on these financial instruments fully compensated for inflation and the depreciation of the hryvnia. That is It makes no sense to buy dollars and other foreign currencies to save.
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