Destructive storm. Policy cannot solve the problem. State intervention is needed

Flooded roads, flooded houses and apartments, damaged cars, torn roofs, fallen trees – these are the effects of the fierce storm that hit Poland This week, state agencies are sounding the alarm for citizens, and experts are delivering bad news: Catastrophic storms are becoming more frequent.

– We can’t escape the sudden rain. We are not immune to flash floods and sudden river surges – says in an interview with PAP Professor Artur Magnuszewski, hydrologist at the Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies of the University of Warsaw, member of the Water Management Committee of the Polish Academy of Sciences.

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Atmospheric physicist Prof. Szymon Malinowski of the Institute of Geophysics at the University of Warsaw added: – Global warming means that we will experience mild weather less often. Droughts and floods occur more frequently than a few decades ago.

Similar conclusions come from the report of the Polish Insurance Institute (PIU) “A climate of growing losses”. In it we read that 60% of all floods in Poland are caused by rainfall. Between 1850 and 1900, on average, a major rainstorm occurred once every 10 years, while now it occurs 1.3 times more often, and the future will obviously not bring any improvement.

Under the most likely scenario of a 2-degree Celsius temperature rise by 2050, rainfall flashes will become 1.7 times more frequent than in pre-industrial times, the report said. Droughts will also become more frequent: 1.4 times more frequent by 2050. These two phenomena occur simultaneously and amplify the losses as the nature of rainfall changes. – In the warm season, floods are more frequent, more intense, short-lived and destructive – the consequence is flash floods, including in cities.

Long-term drought turns the land into rock. When heavy rain falls on such ground, the vast majority of water does not penetrate into the soil, but flows and accumulates in artificial depressions such as low-lying streets, tunnels, garages, basements, etc. Interview with Money.pl, PIU experts.

According to the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, 147 liters of rainfall per square meter fell in Zamość on August 21, setting a new record. The previous record was on May 31, 1980, when the city’s water consumption was 90 liters per day.

Warsaw received less rainfall than Zamość during the night from Monday to Tuesday, at nearly 120 litres per square metre. Enough to flood roads and paralyze citiesThe remiza.pl portal reported through the X platform that after the heavy rain that night, the Warsaw police received nearly a thousand reports.

In recent years, local flash floods have also occurred. Let’s recall that in 2021 the following events occurred: in Kraków, Toruń, Olsztyn and Poznań, 64 liters of rain fell per square meter in half an hour. At the same time, according to the PIU report, 60% of the country’s population lives in cities.

– The number of local and emergency events is increasing. However, this trend does not exclude larger river flooding. Every year we report more and more storms with hail and strong winds. Our interlocutors pointed out that despite the smaller geographical scope of these events, they cause the greatest damage.

Damage is being assessed in towns hit by the storm. PIU experts say the country should collect information on domestic climate damage for research purposes.

A nationwide database will allow us to analyse and draw conclusions as a basis for preventive action and limiting negative impacts. Rafael Mankowski points out that insurance companies have been asking for this for years.

The local government is currently monitoring events and providing information to the Government Security Center (RCB). However, as our interlocutor said, everyone is doing things in their own way, and The idea is to standardize the way of estimating lossesand the calculation is as accurate as possible.

Rafał Mańkowski said a national database is needed, primarily to find out the scale and location of uninsured losses. In this way, we would know the amount of the insurance gap, i.e. the part of property that is not covered by private or public protection.

In the context of increasing climate disasters, prevention is particularly important because it will keep us safer. This involves proper spatial planning, construction standards and ensuring the technical condition of buildings, explains the PIU expert. – Otherwise, as a society, we will face increasingly higher losses every year – he adds.

This includes: about proper roof structures that can withstand gusty winds, or proper water and sewage systems in places where the negative effects of storms occur most often. What’s more, as experts emphasize, commercial insurance companies will not cover certain risks. In such cases, the involvement of the state is necessary.

We must not forget the threat of riverine flooding, such as those of 1997 or 2010, which can be caused by frontal rainfall. These phenomena, although they have not appeared for several years, are more extensive and the damage they cause is greater. Their recent absence does not mean that we do not have to consider this risk. However, in this case, the risk is significantly reduced.

We have taken a number of preventive measures against these disasters.The projects worth mentioning are: Flood Protection in the Oder Basin (OPDO) and Flood Protection in the Oder Basin and Upper Vistula Basin (OPDOW).

The Oder River Basin Flood Protection Project aims to improve flood protection in the Oder River Basin from Racibórz to the Wrocław area. This goal was achieved through the construction of the Racibórz Dry Flood Protection Reservoir and the modernization of hydraulic facilities and structures in the Wrocław Water Hub, which aims to increase the capacity of the Oder River in Wrocław and its surroundings.

The Racibórz Reservoir will be put into operation in 2020 and will cover an area of ​​26 square kilometers. During the flood risk period of the Oder River, approximately 185 million cubic meters of water will be absorbed Thus reducing flood waves. In turn, rebuilding the Oder canal system and hydraulic structures located in the city and its surrounding areas Enabling 3.1 million litres of flood water per second to flow safely through WroclawIn combination with the impact of the Racibórz reservoir, the modernization of the Wrocław Water Hub will provide flood protection comparable to that of July 1997. The flow of the Oder River above Wrocław is estimated to be about 3.7 million litres per second.

The PIU report also states: In 2021, insurance companies paid a total of PLN 994 million in compensation to victims of natural disastersOf this, PLN 970 million related to damages caused by heavy rains, floods, storms, hail and hurricanes. A year ago, they paid significantly less compensation to victims – the total amount was PLN 562 million.

However, not everyone in Poland is insured. Nevertheless, catastrophe losses constitute a significant part of the property insurance gap. In our case, it will be $3 billion in 2022. – According to estimates by the research institute of Swiss insurance company Swiss Re. This is the only study of its kind in our country.

This amount, converted to current US dollars, amounts to PLN 1.11 billion. Importantly, this amount is estimated on the assumption that half of Poland’s real estate is protected from risks such as flooding or strong winds. This means that the total catastrophic losses are twice as high, amounting to $600 million. (PLN 2.25 billion).

According to PIU market estimates of insured apartments and houses, 40% of residential buildings and 72% of single-family houses are insured (an average of 49%). At the same time, according to a study by the European Insurance and Employment Supervisory Authority (EIOPA),34% of Polish SMEs have property insurance against losses caused by natural disasters. 48% have general property insurance. Companies from the SME sector.

In 2022, Poland ranked 15th in the SRI Natural Catastrophe Resilience Index developed by the Swiss Re Institute. 39 countries were analyzed. This means that, despite the relative popularity of insurance against the effects of natural disasters, we still have a lot of work to do to fully resilient our societies and economies to the adverse effects of climate change.

Karolina Wysota, money.pl reporter