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The Colombian real estate market has been in decline for the past two years due to changes in the Mi Casa Ya program, inflation and rising interest rates. However, with the improvement of the last two indicators and the clearer rules for the first indicator, the market is beginning to stabilize, as shown by In July, the industry recorded its first single-digit decline: 7%.
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According to the urban coordinates system of the Colombian Chamber of Construction (Camacol), approximately 10,601 homes were sold in July, compared to 11,350 in the same period last year, a 7% decrease compared to the same period last year. However, 2022 was the best year for the industry, When 18,364 units were sold, that represented a 42% decline.
Regarding the social housing market (VIS), Sales in the segment grew 5% for the first time after more than 20 months of decline. Sales were 7,696 units, compared to 7,326 units sold in the same month of 2023. However, like the national indicator, this is still 44% less than sales in July 2022, when 13,754 units were sold.
In the case of the NO VIS market, double-digit red figures persist. In July, Camacol’s sales fell by 28%, from 4,024 units in this month of 2023 to 2,905 units in the same period of this year, while compared to 2022, sales fell by 37%, when almost 4,610 units were sold.
One indicator worth highlighting is the growth of priority interest housing (VIP) 69% growth in July, Sales increased from 812 units in July 2023 to 1,369 units in the seventh month of this year. However, in 2022, 1,457 units were sold.
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Big cities continue to fall
By region, all regions except the largest markets saw significant improvements: Antioquia, Bogota and Cundinamarca, Magdalena and Cordoba and Sucre.
First, total sales continue to decline by 9% annually, from 1,189 units in 2023 to 1,083 in 2024. The VIS market was hit even harder, with a 14% drop, or a decline of 14%, from 497 units sold in the segment to 429 units by July of this year.
In terms of the largest market, Sales in Bogotá and Cundinamarca continued to fall by 29% compared to 2023. Last July, 5,224 homes were sold, and this year only 3,692 were sold. In the same month of 2022, more than 6,041 homes were sold, and even in 2021, 6,624 homes were sold.
In the VIS market, sales also continued to decline, with sales falling 23% in July, from 3,718 units in 2023 to 2,879 units in July this year. However, the biggest drop was in the No VIS market, where the indicator fell 46% to only 813 units sold, compared to 1,506 units a year ago.
In Magdalena, sales fell from 474 units in 2023 to 392 units in 2024, a 17% decrease. VIS sales fall from 101 in 2023 to 18 in 2024, a drop of 82%.
Finally, sales in Cordoba and Sucre fell by 11%, from 126 units in the seventh month of 2023 to 112 units in 2024. VIS had 93 units sold, down 12% from a year ago (106 units).
See also: Home sales to see double-digit growth by the end of 2024
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Middle area, weight on shoulders
In the Atlantic region, sales increased by 33% compared to the same period last year, from 783 to 1,045. VIS rose by 54%. For its part, Bolivar had a total increase of 1% and VIS by 49%; Boyacá saw increases of 9% and 21%; Caldas 41% and 96%; in Huila, 2% and 18% respectively; Nariño had an increase of 150% and VIS by 22%.
For their part, Norte de Santander had a total increase of 18% and that of VIS of 122%; Risaralda 26% and 110%; Santander fell 7% and that of VIS 6%; Tolima 20% and 30%; Valle 7% and 16%; Cesar had a total market increase of 135% and that of VIS of 196%; while in Meta they rose respectively 90% and 221%; Quindío 6% and 22%; and Cauca Region 75% and 87%.
Other indicators continue to be hit
As sales fell, the number of starts fell sharply as there was supply available for sale. Camacol data showed that the number of new housing starts in July was 5,605, compared with 11,868 starts in the same period last year, a drop of 53%.
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By market segment, VIS fell by 53% and NON-VIS fell by 52%, down 65% and 59% year-on-year respectively.
During launch, the terrain is mixed. Despite a 16% decline in the global market, from 9,115 to 7,678 units launched in July 2023, the VIS segment grew slightly, The number increased from 4,893 to 5,062 units, a 3% increase compared to the same month last year. In No VIS, the decline was as high as 38%, with only 2,616 units launched on the market.
Paula Galeano Balaguera
Portfolio Reporter
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