Heat deaths in Europe to triple by century’s end

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Cause of death hotRelated stress and illness may increase threefold Europe By the end of the century, scientists warn.

If current climate policies continue, heat could become as much of a threat to Europeans as cold, which currently kills more people, researchers say.

The worst impact will be felt in southern Europe, including Spain, Italy, GreeceAccording to the published study, the areas expected to be worst affected include parts of FranceThe Lancet Public Health Thursday.

Europe has seen record numbers of deaths over the past two summers. It is estimated that at least 60,000 people died Deaths from heat stroke are at an all-time high. And a study published this year showed thatr found the death toll to be 43,729.

Under current climate policies, scientists at the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre estimate that number could soar from 43,729 people a year by the end of the century to 128,809 in 2100.

Using data from 1,368 regions in 30 European countries, the researchers simulated temperature-related mortality risks for different age groups and under various global warming scenarios.

The forecast is based on a scenario where global temperatures rise by 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, which is twice the target of the Paris Agreement. However, if global warming can be limited to lower levels, the increase in temperature-related mortality could be significantly reduced.

The findings show that while deaths related to cold weather will fall slightly, deaths related to heat will rise sharply, especially in southern Europe. Currently, cold causes about eight times more deaths than heat in Europe, but this ratio is expected to fall sharply by the end of the century.

“Our analysis shows that the proportion of deaths due to heat and cold will change dramatically this century, with increases in deaths due to heat across Europe and spikes in some regions,” said Dr Juan Carlos Xisca, lead author of the study.

“At the same time, the number of cold-related deaths will decrease slightly overall. Our study, which looked at more than 1,000 locations in 30 countries, identified hotspots where people will be worst affected in the future.”

Dr Emma Lawrence, head of Climate Care at the Institute for Global Health Innovation at Imperial College London, who was not involved in the research, said: “Global warming will not ‘save lives’ as some misguided people claim.”

“The study estimates that if humans continue to warm the planet, heat-related deaths will continue to increase, while cold-related deaths will only decline slightly.

“It is clear that a hotter world means a deadlier world. For every tenth of a degree of warming caused by fossil fuel burning, we will see more deaths from climate change-induced heat, fires, floods and storms, increased spread of mosquito-borne diseases, increased air pollution, and many other climate health impacts.”

The study warned that the risk would increase as the intensity of disasters in Europe was already increasing. Greece had just experienced a devastating wildfire. An area near Athens the size of Paris was burned.

The study estimates that if global temperatures rise by 3 degrees Celsius, deaths in Europe from warming will increase by 13.5%, or 55,000 more deaths per year. The elderly population, especially those aged 85 and over, is expected to bear the brunt of these changes.

Eastern Europe and the Baltic states had the highest number of deaths from cold weather, with between 25 and 300 deaths per 100,000 people. In contrast, parts of central and southern Europe had the lowest death rates.

Heat-related deaths ranged from 0.6 to 47 per 100,000 people, with the lowest rates in the UK and Scandinavia and the highest in Croatia and southernmost Europe.

The researchers acknowledged some limitations of their study, including the focus on urban populations, which generally face higher levels of temperature stress, especially heat, than rural populations.

The study’s authors said Europe needs stronger policies to limit global warming and protect vulnerable regions and populations.

The entire planet is warming rapidly, but Europe is the fastest warming continent.

Between 2013 and 2022, global average near-surface temperatures were 1.13 and 1.17 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, making this the warmest decade on record. European land temperature It increased by 2.04 to 2.10C.

years 2023 is the hottest year on recordIn fact, studies estimating past temperatures before records began have found that It was the hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere in the past 2,000 years.

Last year’s extreme temperatures continued into the middle of this year. Record-breaking July Mercury levels decreased slightly.

Scientists from the European Climate Change Agency Copernicus The African continent experienced a record number of “extreme heat” days, with temperatures exceeding 45 degrees Celsius, due to humidity, the UN said, despite the lower temperatures.